+++ ASTON MARTIN ’s track version of its Valkyrie hypercar, the AMR Pro, isn’t out until 2020, but it appears likely that the production version could end up being even more exciting than the official figures (including peak power of 1.100 hp and a 1.000 kg weight with the same in downforce) have so far suggested. Red Bull Racing’s Adrian Newey, who has led the car’s development alongside Aston creative director Marek Reichman, said: “The downforce we are quoting is obviously early days. The model you see now is effectively the ideas that stand behind the project given over to Marek’s team to interpret. It will, of course, change quite a lot from that”. In other words, it could get even quicker. Newey also admitted that the Valkyrie came close to having a radically different engine from the chosen V12. “I spent a lot of time looking at different power units”, he said. “The obvious choices were a V6 (either single or twin-turbo) or a high-revving, naturally aspirated V12. “In the end, I came to the conclusion that it should be the V12 because of what that allowed us to do in terms of structural mounting, because it’s a very well-balanced engine with good NVH characteristics. With a turbo, you need intercoolers; by the time you’ve put those on, the weight is fairly similar. Technically, the V12 was marginally superior, but it was a close call”. +++
+++ The next-generation AUDI S3 has made an outing in prototype guise, previewing an 11-strong next-generation A3 model line-up due before 2022. Apart from a 5-door hatchback form, using the current car’s MFA platform, the A3 will also have 4-door Limousine and 5-door Liftback variants. The latter is expected to take the Sportback name from the 5-door hatchback, while that variant will be simply badged A3, as the 3-door A3 was discontinued last year. Regular and S3-badged Cabriolet models will complete the line-up, although, as is currently the case, there will be no RS3 drop-top. The other variants will also gain S3 and RS3-badged models, meaning 11 cars will make up the A3 range. With competition from the BMW M140i and upcoming Mercedes-AMG A35 covering the 300-335 hp bracket, the S3 is expected to stay within these limits, with 325 hp mooted by sources. If it follows the example set by the TT-S, with which the current S3 shares an engine, it will get a petrol particulate filter. This has reduced power slightly to 306 hp, but a boost of 20 Nm has taken torque up to 390 Nm. The TT-S ditched its 6-speed manual gearbox for a 7-speed dual-clutch automatic, too. The RS3, meanwhile, will likely increase in power, with 400 hp-plus opposition from the Mercedes-AMG A45 on the way. Audi remains tight-lipped on its future plans, but it’s expected to keep the 2.5-litre 5-cylinder unit from the current car. This 11-car line-up will cover all the bases covered by the Mercedes-Benz A-Class hatchback and Sedan and CLA ranges, including the 35 and 45-badged AMG variants. The styling of the new A3 will follow the rest of the Audi range with a more geometric front-end treatment and sharper tail-lights. Inside, there’ll be Audi’s Virtual Cockpit as standard, with a choice of 2 infotainment screen sizes. The 5-door hatchback will be the first new A3 to arrive next year, replacing the model that was introduced at the 2012 Geneva motor show. The final new A3 variant to arrive will be the 5-door Liftback (Sportback), which isn’t expected until 2021; the third year of the 4th-generation A3’s lifespan. The regular hatchback will be longer and wider than the current car. It has the same track width, but wider wheel arches and carriers to give extra width. Facing fresh competition from the new Mercedes-Benz A-Class Sedan, the A3 Limousine will be introduced in 2020. The new A3’s engine range will include 1.0-litre, 1.5-litre and 2.0-litre TFSI petrol units, as well a 2.0-litre TDI unit in 3 different states of tune. An e-Tron plug-in hybrid model will continue, but it will be upgraded to use the same driveline as the Volkswagen Passat GTE. There won’t be an electric version, though; Audi is saving the EV hatchback market for a dedicated model, which it will release in 2021. The A3 Cabriolet, a small-seller within the Audi range, is the least certain for replacement, given the state of the Cabriolet market and the discontinuation of C-segment Volkswagen Group products following the Beetle’s axing. However, it’s likely to arrive shortly after the hatchback. +++
+++ Fully AUTONOMOUS cars may never be allowed on many public roads, according to BMW’s member of the board Ian Robertson. He highlighted BMW’s leading role in developing self-driving systems, but conceded that it may never be morally acceptable to leave the decision for unavoidable accidents to a machine. “Imagine a scenario where the car has to decide between hitting one person or the other; to choose whether to cause this death or that death”, he said. “What’s it going to do? Access the diary of one and ascertain they are terminally ill and so should be hit? I don’t think that situation will ever be allowed”. BMW already has more than 40 vehicles testing on public roads running 1.000 km journeys routinely. However, Robertson revealed that, while the majority of the trips are completed without problems, the engineer on board has to intervene on average 3 times. BMWs will be intelligent, but full autonomy is a long way off, says board member “That’s good, but we are working in a scenario where it has to be perfect”, he said. “If we are working towards a ‘brain off’ scenario, where perhaps we expect travellers to even sit in the back of the car and relax, then that clearly isn’t possible today, despite what some might tell you. “Then there is the overarching consideration of the regulators that we need to consider. “But I believe that in the long term, the regulators will step in and set boundaries about how far we can go. It might be to allow it only on motorways, as they are the most controlled environments. Or perhaps they’d essentially ‘rope off’ parts of cities to allow autonomous cars into controlled areas, where the consequences for pedestrians are controlled”. While still BMW’s sales and marketing chief last year, Robertson stated that he could never see a scenario where the firm made cars without steering wheels. He instead suggested that the occupants would always want the option of choosing to drive themselves. +++
+++ BMW is ramping up testing of its all-new 3 Series range before its launch in October, including a 330e plug-in hybrid model. The 330e is one of several new 3-Series variants planned to follow the standard sedan, due to be revealed at the Paris Motor Show. A Touring model will go on sale not long after the sedan. A fully electric 3 Series is not expected, with that car instead set to be part of the 4 Series lineup. Expect a substantial increase in electric range and a minor performance boost with the next 330e, which could arrive early next year. The current car combines a 2.0-litre turbocharged petrol engine with an 88 hp electric motor, promising an all-electric range of 40 kilometres miles and a 0-100 km/h time of 6.1 seconds. The 330e is set to become a more crucial model in the range thanks to the drop in demand for diesel models. It’s popularity has increased steadily since its introduction to the range in 2017. There is even potential for BMW to offer a lower-powered, even more efficient version to plug the fleet-biased gap in the range historically filled by the 320d. That powertrain could use the new 3-cylinder engine that’ll feature in the 318i and build on it with an electric motor and lithium-ion battery pack. Both the Sedan and Touring versions of BMW’s future model are being engineered to offer even more comfort but not to the detriment of handling. This means the whole range, even sportier versions such as the M Sport variant, should be more forgiving on rough surfaces than before. The motivation for this more comfortable model comes from hot competition from Mercedes-Benz and its rivalling C-Class. Although the 3 Series stands strong as BMW’s best-selling model, it’s fallen short of the hot-selling C-Class, which sold in 176,915 units to the 3 Series’ 129,053 in 2017. As such, BMW engineers have been tasked with broadening the 3 Series’s reach and fighting the C-Class at its own, more comfort-focused game. The future 3 Series will also be offered with more variants, including new M-fettled versions that feature generous boosts in performance. The first variant will be the rear-wheel-drive M340i M Performance, which will feature a 360 hp version of BMW’s twin-scroll turbocharged 3.0-litre inline 6-cylinder petrol engine. It will be followed by a 4-wheel-drive M340d xDrive M Performance, which is set to receive a 320 hp version of the company’s twin-turbocharged 3.0-litre inline 6-cylinder diesel engine. Key to the expansion plan for the 7th-generation 3 Series is the addition of two new M Performance models powered by 6-cylinder engines. In a strategy mirroring that undertaken with the latest 5 Series, the new M Performance variants will go on sale shortly after more mainstream versions of the new 3 Series are launched in both saloon and estate bodystyles. The new derivatives will be offered as either a petrol or a diesel and will bridge the gap in the line-up that presently exists between standard six-cylinder models and BMW M’s range-topping M3. The new performance-oriented 3 Series models will be targeted at the likes of the Audi S4 Quattro and Mercedes-AMG C43 4Matic. They will have individual styling touches, their own unique chassis tuning and relatively high equipment levels. They will also form the basis for the 2-door M440i M Performance Coupé and M440d M Performance Coupé models, which will arrive in showrooms in 2020. Significantly, the decision to launch the M340d xDrive M Performance model underpins plans by BMW to continue to equip the 3 Series with a full range of 3, 4 and 6-cylinder diesel engines, despite increasingly tight emissions legislation across Europe, including the spectre of regional bans on diesel cars from entering city centres (some of which may be implemented in Germany). “The diesel is a critical component in our efforts to reach the 2020 climate targets”, said BMW chairman Harald Krüger. “It is very important in improving the overall efficiency of our future models”. BMW is pulling out all the stops to ensure the new 3 Series, which goes under the internal codename G20, possesses the stylistic appeal, performance credentials, dynamic ability and overall technical prowess it needs to claw back the gains made by its keenest executive class rivals, most notably the C-Class, which officials have described to Autocar as the clear benchmark. Prototype saloon versions of the new 3 Series spied testing on the roads around BMW’s engineering headquarters in Munich recently indicate it will continue the company’s tradition of evolutionary design change, with an appearance that leans heavily on that of the larger 5 Series, as well as influence from the X2. The car has a more naturally sporting stance to mirror the changes beneath. Credit for the design of the new model rests with former BMW brand design boss, Karim Habib, who moved to Infiniti last year. As the first 3 Series model to be fully honed in BMW’s Munich-based wind tunnel, the G20 is also claimed to match the aerodynamic efficiency of the 5 Series. The most slippery body style is said to have a drag co-efficient of 0.22. The new 3 Series has grown in most key dimensions. Nothing is official, but Munich insiders suggest overall length is up by 60 mm to around 4.703 mm. Some 20 mm of this is said to be concentrated within a lengthened wheelbase, which has increased to almost 2.830 mm, up from 2.810 mm. By comparison, the current C-Class is 4.696 mm in length and has a 2.840 mm wheelbase. The new 3 Series is based on BMW’s latest CLAR (cluster architecture) platform, as used by all recent BMW models, and features a longitudinally mounted engine. In keeping with developments already seen on the larger 5 Series, it benefits from a range of weight-saving initiatives, including the greater use of hot-formed high-strength steel within the main body structure, to cut the already highly competitive kerbweight of today’s sixth-generation model by up to 50 kg, despite the larger dimensions. The volume of 3 Series sales rules out the use of carbonfibre, so there’ll be no Carbon Core structural developments like those seen on the headlining 7 Series. However, BMW’s body construction specialists suggest the G20 will feature a much larger number of cast aluminium components and a greater percentage of magnesium in load-bearing areas. All told, the weight-saving developments are expected to give the lightest variant in the range, the 3-cylinder 318i, a kerb weight of about 1.425 kg. Together with the reduction in weight, the CLAR platform is also claimed to bring an improvement in structural rigidity that, in a move similar to that undertaken with the 5 Series, forms the basis for a change in philosophy for the chassis tuning. Recognising a growing customer desire for additional ride comfort, BMW is looking to provide standard versions of the new 3 Series with more compliant properties, in a move aimed at matching the smoothness of the C-Class. Expected developments include the adoption of rear air springs on more upmarket models. However, BMW is thought to have ruled out the active four-wheel steering system (that countersteers the rear wheels at lower speeds and parallel steers them at higher speeds in the name of agility), even though the 5 Series is equipped with it. +++
+++ The entire automotive industry talks nervously of disruption. Autonomy, China, electric vehicles… these days it’s a case of pick your threat. In the United Kingdom, however, disruption is coming much faster and from a much more traditional source: politics. BREXIT and, to a lesser extent, the decline of diesel are probably the 2 biggest forces acting on the industry right now, and the fate of both, by and large, lies in the hands of the British government and its opposition. The chief executive of automotive supplier Unipart has warned that Brexit has the potential to wreak even worse devastation on the industry than what occurred in the 1970s. “I fear hard-line Brexiteers are in danger of achieving what that rabble of militant trade unions failed to do: destroying the British car industry”, John Neill wrote in the Daily Mail in May. If there was ever a company that tracked the recent downs and ups of our car industry, it’s Unipart, which was once a division of the state-owned dinosaur British Leyland but is now a thriving independent parts and logistics firm. Neill’s worries are those of the wider industry. Tariffs would be bad, but worse would be the delays resulting from car parts held up at what’s increasingly looking like being a hard border between the UK and the Continent. That threatens to destroy the finely timed movement from supplier to manufacturer that has evolved over years of membership of the EU. The loss of easy access to our biggest market and parts suppliers could put the brakes on a strong period of growth for British car manufacturing, argues David Bailey, professor of industry at Aston University. From a record 1.92 million vehicles made in 1972, UK car production has slumped, peaked and slumped again, but this decade it came roaring back to 1.7 million vehicles (and 2.7 million engines) last year, thanks in part to a resurgent Nissan and Jaguar Land Rover, the 2 biggest British manufacturers by far. Brexit could reverse that. “There’s a real danger we’ll have another decline”, Professor Bailey said. “Production is not guaranteed to be here; it can be shifted around, and we’re in danger of a self-inflicted wound that seriously damages the automotive industry”. Manufacturing jobs have already been lost: at Vauxhall in Ellesmere Port, at Jaguar Land Rover in Solihull and at Nissan in Sunderland. To what extent they were lost due to Brexit, the slump in diesel sales or simply cyclical market upheavals is a point that has been much debated, but the timing looks ominous. Brexit so worries Jaguar Land Rover that its normally reticent boss, Ralf Speth, warned last month that a bad Brexit deal would cost the company more than 1.3 billion euro a year in lost profits and inflict serious job losses. “We want to stay in the UK, but if we don’t have the right deal, we’ll have to close plants and it will be very, very sad”, he told the Financial Times. Jaguar Land Rover is also reeling from the diesel crisis, as are many other firms. “It’s been a huge issue for the market”, said Bailey. “Government has been all over the place on this”. In the first 6 months of this year, diesel demand tumbled by 30 % to the point where the fuel type accounts for just a third of sales, down from more than half at its peak from 2011 to 2014. Jaguar Land Rover sales are more than 90 % diesel in the UK and the company has seen demand fall by 9 % in the first 6 months of 2018, despite fresh product. The body that represents car makers in the UK, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), has called on the Government to throw its support behind the latest cleaner diesels and help change public opinion that ‘diesel equals dirty’. +++
+++ Bosses of Volkswagen and Jaguar Land Rover predict models for the carmarket in CHINA will soon be sold in Europe. China has been the world’s largest new car market for a number of years; in 2017 around 28.8 million vehicles were sold in the country, and 1 in 4 new cars built globally last year was made there. Many of those cars, made by brands we know in Europe, are unique models for China. But that could change. Volkswagen’s sales and marketing boss Jürgen Stackmann said: “You will see cars from us in the next 2 years that will only be sold in China, but people elsewhere will also want them. The market size allows us to come up with larger sub-segmentation compared to regions like Europe, and we are looking at bringing cars from China into Europe”. Jaguar Land Rover technical director Wolfgang Zeibart told: “There’s a very high chance China will be able to export its cars outside of the country; there is no reason why not. “The market is growing too fast for it to happen now, but in the future I can see it. Production costs are lower and so are the components, and the quality is very good”. Lynk & Co (owned by Chinese conglomerate Geely, along with Volvo and Lotus) will be the first brand to make a go of it in Europe. Vehicles will begin to arrive in the UK in 2020. But rather than being imported from the firm’s new 1.5 billion euro factory in Zhangjakou, China, models bound for Europe will be produced at Volvo’s plant in Ghent, Belgium. A Geely spokesman told: “Zhejiang Geely Holding Group subsidiary factories are all built to Volvo Cars’ leading standards (or in case of Luqiao factory, directly managed by Volvo) and thus are capable of producing cars to global standards”. +++
+++ JAGUAR LAND ROVER (JLR) will add 3 new models over the next 5 years and gradually switch most of its vehicles to a new modular platform. The first model will be a new-generation Defender, arriving in the 2020/21 financial year, JLR said in a June 22 presentation to investors. 2 more vehicles will be launched between 2021 and 2024, increasing JLR’s model range to 16 from 13 now, according to the presentation. The company gave no information about the models but media reports speculate that the single-model Defender may be expanded into a product family to rival Jeep. The new models could include an entry-level Land Rover. Land Rover also may also launch a car-like crossover called the Road Rover. Plans for a halo model to take on the Bentley Bentayga ultraluxury SUV appear to be on the back burner for now. JLR’s new Modular Longitudinal Platform (MLA) will bring cost efficiencies by being shared across the bulk of its vehicles. Currently the automaker uses 6 platforms, including the D7U aluminum platform used by the Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and Discovery large SUVs, and the D7A aluminum platform used by Jaguar XF and XE sedans, Jaguar F-Pace SUV and the Range Rover Velar. The Range Rover Evoque, Land Rover Discovery Sport and Jaguar E-Pace use the D8 steel platform, a heavily reworked version of a legacy Ford platform. The Jaguar XJ sedan, F-Type sports car and I-Pace EV are on unique platforms. JLR said the shift to the new MLA platform will start in 2020, possibly meaning the first vehicle to use it will be the upcoming Land Rover Defender. The platform would give it “increased flexibility, commonality, standardization and scale”, JLR said in its presentation. The company did not mention which materials it would be built from. Vehicles on the MLA architecture can be offered as mild-hybrid, plug-in hybrid or full electric vehicles, it said. The D8 platform will underpin new small models until the 2024/25 financial year, after which the cars will switch to the MLA. Before then JLR will update the platform, now called Premium Transverse Architecture (PTA), to include plug-in hybrid and 48-volt mild hybrid models. The first model to use it will be the new Range Rover Evoque, which is expected to go on sale next year. Improvements to this small platform will cut CO2 emissions. JLR needs to lower its CO2 emissions in Europe to 135 grams per km CO2 target by 2021 as part of the EU’s target to reduce industrywide emissions to 95 gram/km by then. JLR’s figure is currently stands 178 gram/km, the company said. Other technologies available with the new transverse engine architecture is a “see-through”, a video technology that lets the driver see the ground directly ahead of the car during off-road driving. Jaguar Land Rover will open its first assembly plant on the European mainland in September, in Slovakia. It will start with production of the Land Rover Discovery, with a capacity of 150,000 vehicles a year. Defender production will be added later. The company posted its first quarterly loss in 3 years last month as Brexit and falling European diesel demand hit its vehicle sales. The company estimates that it will finish the current financial year with an margin of 3.8 %. JLR targets a margin of 4 to 7 % in the “medium term” and 7 to 9 % in the “long-term”, it said, without giving a more exact timeframe. +++
+++ Peugeot and Toyota are the latest automakers to commit to Europe’s MAINSTREAM MIDSIZE SEGMENT despite forecasts showing customers will continue to move to SUVs, while Ford, once a dominant player, is not conforming it will replace its Mondeo. The segment is expected to decline to less than 400,000 annual sales by 2021 from just below 540,000 in 2017, according to estimates from LMC Automotive. The market will drop 10 % this year after falling 12 % in 2017, LMC forecasts. Those numbers are a far cry from the mid-1990s when cars such as the Volkswagen Passat, Renault Laguna, Opel/Vauxhall Vectra and Ford Mondeo accounted for more than 1 in 5 sales in Europe. In the first 5 months, the midsize segment totaled just 3.2 % of sales across Europe, according to data from market analysts JATO Dynamics, making it the No. 9 segment. The small-car sector was No. 1, taking a 19 % share of overall sales. The Passat dominated the midsize segment through May with sales of 74,791, more than double the second-place Skoda Superb. The No. 3 Opel/Vauxhall Insignia is gaining ground fast, with sales up 49 %, and looks set to overtake the Superb soon. Sales of the Ford Mondeo, meantime, sank 15 % to 22,486. The new Volkswagen Arteon moved into 5th place with 10,066. Peugeot will start sales of its new 508 range in September. To stimulate interest in a tricky sector for French manufacturers (Renault is struggling to sell its relatively new Talisman, with sales down 45 % through May), Peugeot has addressed the design to make it look more appealing, swapping the sedan model for a so-called Liftback look. “We wanted a more dynamic-looking car”, Peugeot designdirector Gilles Vidal told at the 2018 Geneva auto show. The automaker has since unveiled a SW wagon version of the 508. IHS Markit estimates that annual European production of both 508 models will be about 80,000 next year, with an additional 12,000 in China. Meanwhile, Toyota has committed to replacing its aging Avensis with a hybrid version of its Camry, which will be imported from Japan. Toyota said the Camry, which will go on sale in Europe next year, will be aimed at fleet customers looking for a low-CO2 model. Midsize cars will continue to appeal to practical customers who won’t tolerate the economy and size compromises of SUVs, JATO thinks. “They are still popular among Uber drivers in big cities such as Paris, and they are a good choice for business-car fleets”, said Felipe Munoz, a global automotive analyst at JATO. The Camry is the latest in an increasingly wider choice of hybrid models in the segment. The Passat GTE plug-in hybrid was one of the first, while the Kia Optima plug-in hybrid arrived in 2016. Next year, Skoda will launch a plug-in hybrid version of the Superb, while Peugeot will start selling a plug-in hybrid version of the 508 in the latter half of 2019. Sales of hybrid models in the midsize segment climbed 89 % to reached 5 % of total sales through May, JATO said. Ford offers a hybrid version of its Mondeo, which doesn’t plug in. Ford has said the current Mondeo remains part of its core European lineup despite fears for the car’s future after the company announced it wouldn’t replace its current sedan lineup in the U.S. (the Fusion), on which the Mondeo is based. The current Mondeo was launched in late 2014. Ford wouldn’t comment on a Mondeo successor. “Ford’s decision in the U.S. makes it more difficult to justify the future of the Mondeo”, Ian Fletcher, principal analyst for IHS Markit, told. One possibility is a complete reinvention of the car. “Our current assumption is that the replacement for the current Mondeo will be an all-electric model built in China”, said David Oakley, an LMC Automotive analyst for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. One automaker unlikely to abandon the midsize sector is the Volkswagen Group, which can call on continued strong demand in Germany for its Passat and Skoda Superb models. VW’s home market is by far the biggest for this segment in Europe, accounting for 68,646 sales in the first five months, nearly double those of the next-biggest market, the UK. Poland, meanwhile, came close to overtaking France in 4th position after French sales slumped 29 % over the same time frame. Germany loves its wagons, and that’s why stationwagon versions of midsize cars are the biggest sellers in the segment, accounting for a 60 % share through May. Sales of Liftback-styled models grew 39 % to take a 20 % share, vindicating Peugeot’s switch, while sedan sales fell 23 %, resulting in a share of just 13 %. Diesel’s falling share in Europe is repeated in this segment, with sales down 22 % in the first 5 months. Demand for gasoline-powered models, meanwhile, rose 63 %. Diesel is still dominant, however, with a 60 % share. A switch to gasoline generally means increased fuel consumption. But cars in the midsize sector are now generally built on stretched versions of compact architectures, which are lighter and therefore can be made more economical. Peugeot, for example, claims that building the 508 on PSA Group’s EMP2 platform has helped reduce weight by about 70 kg compared with the previous-generation car. Meanwhile, VW’s Passat and Skoda’s Superb are both built on VW’s MQB architecture, shared with the Golf, while Toyota’s Camry uses the company’s global TNGA platform, shared with the new. The midsize sector might be in decline now but LMC expects an end to the slump by 2022, partly because it will be revived by new models but also because the volume automakers will have plugged gaps in their midsize SUV ranges. Said LMC’s Oakley, “There will continue to be a place in the market for mainstream midsize cars”. +++
+++ TESLA is likely to build a compact electric car “within the next 5 years”, according to mercurial company boss Elon Musk. Although the company is still struggling to get fully on top of production of its Model 3, this late-2022 rival to Volkswagen’s upcoming ID Neo is probably the key to Tesla fully establishing itself over the longer term as a global car manufacturer. The compact Tesla is scheduled to be made in the new Shanghai facility announced by the company last week, alongside the forthcoming Model Y crossover. The factory’s production capacity of 500,000 cars per year suggests that Tesla expects the 2 models to have significant market potential. Tesla will arrive relatively late to the compact EV game (Volkswagen’s ID Neo will start rolling out of factories in early 2020) but with what it expects to be a significant competitive advantage: the lower cost of its home-grown battery packs. Tesla, along with partner Panasonic, is convinced it has an important lead over the opposition when it comes to the cost of producing batteries. In the world of EV manufacturing, this is the main issue that car makers around the globe are struggling to address. It’s expected that the ID Neo will cost around 31,000 euro when it goes on sale late next year, with its battery packs costing about 200 euro per kWh. The entry-level Volkswagen is expected to have a 60 kWh battery, resulting in a pack that could cost as much as 12,000 euro per car. That remains a very significant sum compared with the factory cost of a conventional petrol engine and automatic gearbox. According to research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, mainstream battery makers will hit the magic 100 euro per kWh by 2025. This price point is key because it’s the level at which industry experts believe the EV revolution can really take off. However, Tesla and Panasonic are expected to reach 100 euro per kWh by 2020. The upshot is that a Golf-sized Tesla launched at the tail end of 2022 could have a 70 euro per kWh battery, allowing the production of a 60 kWh pack that costs just 4.200 euro. If these medium-term projections prove to be accurate, then Musk has good reason to be optimistic about Tesla being able to offer a significant price advantage over mass makers within his 5-year time frame. But before Tesla can make a potentially genuinely affordable EV, the company needs to finally nail down the Model 3 production process and prosper. The struggle of the Fremont factory to consistently reach the initial ‘take-off’ speed of 5.000 Model 3s every week by June 2018 rattled some investors. However, building the new compact Tesla at a brand-new Chinese facility makes sense because this is where an affordable EV would have most market traction. Indeed, China is already the largest market for EVs, steered strongly by national and local government and the need to address pollution in Chinese cities. Tesla registered a new company in Shanghai in May. This new factory is likely to be less of an experiment than the highly robotised Model 3 line in California and its construction and organisation will be greatly aided by China’s now world-class automotive manufacturing capabilities. Funding this plant will be a serious challenge but building a factory in China is likely to be a quicker and less complex process than building one in the US or western Europe. Another potential technical advantage Tesla has over its mass-market competition is the company’s new ‘flex circuit’ technology. Expected first in the Model Y crossover, flex circuits are extremely thin conductive elements sandwiched between very thin flexible plastic mouldings. The Model Y’s new flex circuits could use a wiring loom length of just 100 metres. This is in marked contrast to the current Model X, which has around 3 km of wiring. Even the Model 3 has 1.5 km of wiring. Applying this technology to the compact Tesla would give the model another significant factory cost advantage when it arrives in 2022. +++
+++ The VOLKSWAGEN Group may imminently recall 124,000 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, pending a decision by Germany’s Federal Motor Transport Authority, the KBA. The recall is prompted by the discovery that cadmium, a carcinogenic metal, is used in part of the cars’ charging systems. This means that all electric cars and plug-in hybrids in the Volkswagen range (the e-Golf, e-Up, Golf GTE and Passat GTE) are affected, as well as hybrid Audi and Porsche models. Volkswagen discovered the issue on 20 July and duly informed authorities of the problem. The chargers each contain 0.008 grams of cadmium, and although the parts pose no threat to users, being well insulated, the chemical’s environmental impact once the cars reach the end of their lives is cause for concern. The part containing cadmium has been replaced with an alternative provided by a different supplier, ending a temporary hiatus in production of the affected cars. The Golf and Passat GTE, however, have been off sale in the UK since the start of the year, with Volkswagen maintaining that unprecedented demand has caused a backlog of orders and a build-up in lead times. Volkswagen released the following statement: “Volkswagen informed the German Federal Motor Transport Authority (Kraftfahrt Bundesamt KBA) verbally in advance on 12 July and in a written statement on 20 July that cadmium (0.008 grams per battery charger) was, in addition to silver, used to a small extent in a relay of the high-voltage battery charger from a specific supplier for the coating of electrical contacts. This was determined during material analyses commissioned by Volkswagen in an external and an internal laboratory. An immediate re-examination of the material data sheets submitted to us by the supplier showed that they did not contain any information on the use of cadmium. The relevant relay is installed in a fixed housing inside the battery charger, which itself is enclosed in a fixed housing. This enables Volkswagen to ensure that no cadmium can be released into the environment and that no consumer or service technician can come into contact with it”. +++