+++ The next-generation AUDI RS4 AVANT is in line to be the first RS performance model to get a plug-in hybrid powertrain, as the German firm ramps up its electrification push. Audi is thought to be in the very early stages of testing the RS4’s powertrain, which is expected to be based around the current twin-turbocharged 2.9-litre V6 petrol engine but with electric assistance that will lift its output beyond 450 hp and 600 Nm. An A4-based test mule spotted in the Alps is thought to have been testing this new set-up, due to the “very loud” noise it was making, and the fact that it was testing alongside a RS6 Avant. Mandatory testing stickers and a camouflaged charging flap give it away as a PHEV. When it gets its own bodywork, it’s expected to be even more aggressive than the recently spotted Audi S4 Avant. The hot estate was pictured with a lower and wider front grille, slimmer headlights and a more angular roofline to the standard A4, so expect the range-topper to don classic RS-style widened arches, large-diameter sports wheels, a bespoke body kit and a beefy sports exhaust. It is also expected to get an interior very similar to its S4 sibling, with a floating instrument panel behind a new flat-bottomed steering wheel, a clean centre console and a more advanced twin-touchscreen interface. Audi looks to be ditching traditional gear shifters for a new toggle-based gear switch in the A4 line-up. This is expected to operate either a 7-speed dual-clutch automatic or 8-speed torque-converter unit. An Audi spokesman confirmed that the next RS4 is still in the very early stages of development and is “a number of years away”. The standard new A4 Avant is set to hit dealerships next year. Expect the new RS4 Avant to be cheaper than the model it replaces in the Netherlands (which is currently priced from 133.010 euro) because a drastic lower emissionlevel means less taxes. +++
+++ Insider information reveales that CHRYSLER has an electric sedan in development. As has been practice for the Pentastar since long before Stellantis, this Chrysler 4-door would be the platform sibling of an electric Dodge sedan, the Dodge version to arrive sometime in 2024, the Chrysler variant about 2 years later. Nothing in the documents identified the EV sedan as a replacement for the 300, but there is circumstantial evidence that points to this conclusion: documents say the vehicles will run 800 volt electrical architectures, thought to mean they’ll also get the most powerful versions of Stellantis’ new electric motors making anywhere from 204 to 450 hp. And because of that, it can be expected that these products will use the STLA Large platform. Chrysler’s working up a range of new products as part of the numerous brand resets Stellantis committed to. In January, Chrysler CEO Christine Feuell told the coming portfolio “will include a number of brand-new products that don’t exist today, but also products that are still playing in segments that we’re in already”, calling out the fact that Chrysler only plays in the large sedan and minivan segments. Then she said, “Our intention is to redefine products for those segments, and they’re certainly going to be a vast departure from what’s in market today”. The automaker’s first EV is expected to be the Airflow, teased during the Stellantis EV day last summer before being debuted at CES in January. With Dodge already making a muscle car, turning that into a product for Chrysler seems like a no-brainer. The above mentioned information could be applied to the Airflow. It’s on the STLA Large platform, will pack 2 motors producing a combined 408 hp, and fit a battery capable of juicing a 640 km range. As far as we can tell, Chrysler has never called it a crossover yet. Not that the nomenclature would matter anyway, since any model name with brand equity can be turned into any other kind of vehicle (see: Aspen, Blazer, Maverick, et al). The Airflow name on an EV makes a logical tie to the original Airflow produced from 1937 to 1940, that original car so named because of its aerodynamic features. But if the Airflow EV hit the market as the new 300, I couldn’t say we hadn’t seen that trick before. After all, Chrysler’s new slogan is “Clean technology for a new generation of families”, leaving enough wiggle room to call any product anything. Nevertheless, Chrysler needs more than one vehicle, and there’s no reason one of them shouldn’t be a sedan. We’ll probably have to get much closer to the 2025 debut of the Airflow concept to find out what’s coming our way, though. +++
+++ “There’s so much tension in our lives right now that simplicity has become cool. The more turmoil there is, the cooler our brand becomes”. If DACIA boss Denis Le Vot is right (and European sales figures suggest he is), the affordable car maker from Romania is about to get glacially cool. Inflation, salary freezes, rising energy and raw material costs, war in Ukraine… The list of phrases you can append the word ‘crisis’ to is growing almost daily and is, says Le Vot, about to be joined by a new one: mobility. He explains: “Since World War II, we’ve seen the cost of cars, adjusted for inflation, staying more or less flat or in some cases going down. That’s no longer the case. The pressures are coming from everywhere but especially environmentally. Lower emissions and electrification come at a cost. Nobody can hide from that reality. But people need to drive. “Dacia isn’t the answer to that problem for everyone, but we are the answer for a lot of people, and we mustn’t lose sight of that fact”. Le Vot is, he says, inspired by Dacia’s opportunity to answer real-world issues, although it’s hard not to suspect that he has brought similar levels of energy to whatever he has done in his stellar career, from eager industrial and quality engineer through to senior roles in aftersales, sales, marketing and commercial leadership all around the world. Nevertheless, now a few years shy of 60, this carpenter’s son, who grew up as 1 of 4 children in a “very simple, very normal” home, says he has found his calling. “I love selling cars people can afford”, he beams. “The sky is the limit for the brand, because we have the answers to the questions people are asking, and I want you to understand why”. For the next 4 hours, Le Vot hardly stops talking, and if that excitement is infectious, it’s also understandable. Not only are world circumstances to its advantage but also, following careful planning and investment, Dacia is neatly poised to unleash a string of updates to its brand and products that should rapidly boost their appeal at exactly the moment that more people than ever before are considering them. “Without Renault, Dacia would be nothing; it simply wouldn’t exist”, says Le Vot. “We’re able to take the hardware and adapt it (which we do, quite extensively, by the way) and produce cars where a lot of the costs of creation have already been amortised. That’s a crucial advantage, especially when we’re able to make all our cars (from the Sandero through to the Duster and on to the 7-seat Jogger, with the larger Bigster SUV set to follow) on the same platform. “But the crucial part of our future story is the path set by group CEO Luca de Meo, which states that Renault will focus on the C-segment and above and electrification. That leaves a lot of space for Dacia, with a lot of potential for growth”. +++
+++ The internal combustion era still has a good few years left; the U.S. market is aiming at 50% of battery-electric new car sales in 2030, which would still put millions of new gas- and oil-burners on the road yearly. But automakers will undoubtedly begin rolling out ICE greatest hits as they take their lineups electric. DODGE , current U.S. poster child for the phrase “There’s no such thing as too much horsepower”, could hit the high note as soon as next month. Mopar Insiders reports its sources saying the automaker is planning a limited edition Challenger that can run E85 from the factory, and it will be more powerful than the 840-horsepower 2018 Challenger SRT Demon. MI thinks that means something over 850 hp, while noting that Mopar’s Direct Connection Stage 3 kit is rated at 885 hp on 100 octane. Getting an E85 kit from the factory would mean getting the ancillary upgrades needed to get the most from running the corn-based fuel. As OST Dyno told us in our series about tuning a car properly, it’s possible to pick up an ECU mod for $700 or so that claims to add 70 wheel horsepower when the 6.2-liter V8 is fed E85, but those don’t come with the injectors and fuel line mods that a proper E85 conversion should have. After its success with the Demon and every other special run, we expect Dodge would lay the thing out right. We’d also expect that with several online E85 package sellers advertising around 900 wheel horsepower after the upgrade, we would not be surprised if Dodge advertised an even 1.000 crank horsepower for the rumored special edition. The rumor might be less of a stretch than usual. Dodge created a 24-month calendar called “Never Lift” to celebrate milestones on the way to its all-electric muscle car. The calendar is a series of garage doors that get opened when the time is right, the most recent door being the announcement of this year’s Roadkill Nights. The next 2 closed doors feature a pair of hands and a tire swing. On the door after that: an old-fashioned jug with 3 Xs on it. That’s a moonshine jug, the Xs representing how many times that lunar elixir has passed through the still. Moonshine is made from corn mash, said corn now more likely to end up at an ethanol refiner than fermented in a backyard still. There’s no way to tell when that garage will open nor what the graphic means, but Dodge has a bunch of stuff planned for its Speed Week between Roadkill Nights and the Woodward Dream Cruise, so stay tuned during the week of August 15. +++
+++ GORDON MURRAY ’s automotive engineering and design consultancy is pushing ahead with work on two pure-electric SUVs that are set to feature innovative construction and lightweight materials. Surrey-based Gordon Murray Automotive (GMA) remains focused on delivering supercars like the T.33 and T.50, as well as a forthcoming mild hybrid that will make use of those cars’ Cosworth-developed V12 engine. But a recent restructuring of the consultancy side of the business has rolled Gordon Murray Design (GMD) in with Gordon Murray Electronics (GME) to form Gordon Murray Technology (GMT). The new Group CEO of the companies, Phillip Lee, said that the restructuring is already making it easier to sell the fast-expanding company’s skills to outside clients, including major car manufacturers and start-ups. He also revealed that work is still progressing on an all-electric SUV; a vehicle which, Murray himself revealed last year, could weigh around a tonne, a third less than comparable models. Lee stated that the new car (and a second, larger model that is also being developed with a partner) will use immersion-core battery cooling, in which the lithium/ion cells sit in a dielectric, non-conductive solution to help better control extreme highs and lows of temperature. Gordon Murray Technology is working with a supplier on battery cell chemistry, but focusing on how those cells are arranged in packs, installed in the vehicle and managed with software. “We’ve chosen immersion core technology on the batteries with dielectric cooling”, he told us. “This stabilises the thermal efficiency of battery so it can operate very hot and very cold. You can size the battery more appropriately as a result, and then there’s also the scalability of the platform. You can mount it (the cell packs) into a case, access it and then offer it to the vehicle, and it becomes a structural part of the car. Those features are common across the platform, on the EV front”. Few details have been issued about the clients for each SUV, but Lee appeared to suggest that the smaller model is being developed for a manufacturer without an existing presence. “Once they’ve launched their brand, and launched how they’re going to set up the dealer network, and convinced us as well that it’s definitely going to get to market, then we’ll work out how we fit with their story, and work with them on that”, he said. He rubbished suggestions that the vehicle will end up being an addition to GMA’s exclusive line-up of models. “I’ve seen comments saying our SUV will be totally unaffordable”, he said. “We’re not making an SUV; we’re basically engineering partners, technology partners, working with people. We won’t make that SUV”. Lee believes that the wider Gordon Murray Group now has the scale and confidence to resist being attached to projects that don’t ultimately come to fruition. “I want to make sure that with GMT, the customer is anonymous, because when they get the product to market, they can promote their brand”, he said. “And we also work with people where the product actually gets to market; I don’t want to work on things that don’t get anywhere any more, that basically use our name but then, for various reasons, just stop”. Lee said that Murray’s long-mooted iStream manufacturing process is now, in effect, part and parcel of the Superlight architecture which includes a patented design that, on EV models, can integrate the battery pack into the car’s structure. Gordon Murray Automotive looks set to be the first to actually make a vehicle using iStream’s manufacturing principles, when its combustion-engined, €2.5 million T.33 goes into production in 2024. As part of the restructuring, Gordon Murray Group said that it is planning to expand to a US base in the near future. Lee revealed that two sites are likely (one on each coast) but stressed that the focus will be on maintaining relationships with the well-heeled customers of GMA’s T.33 and T.50, instead of setting up an alternative R&D base to the UK site. “It’s really important for us to maintain that customer relationship”, he said, “so the US project is around 80 percent GMA”. Gordon Murray Group’s work on its new Windlesham headquarters continues apace, meanwhile. Lee revealed that the low-speed test track (designed for cars to be shaken down after they leave the production line) has now been completed, and that the buildings for the technology campus are under construction now. +++
+++ MERCEDES is readying an all-new car to launch in 2023, called the CLE. I’ve already spotted the compact executive cabriolet testing on the road and with the latest similarly-sized C-Class already out, we have a good idea of what to expect from this model. Unlike the BMW 4 Series which only had to replace the 3 Series coupe and cabriolet, the CLE will have multiple pairs of shoes to fill as it is expected to replace the coupe and cabriolet versions of both the C-Class and E-Class. As for the name, the new CLE nameplate has been owned by Mercedes for a while but the German firm has recently renewed the trademark. Mercedes has preferred the use of a fabric roof in its convertibles of late and the CLE will adhere to this approach. The overall proportions of the test cars I’ve spotted look typically Mercedes, so I’m not expecting a drastic change of design language for the CLE. The testcar I’ve spotted sits on 15-spoke alloys and features a dual exit exhaust system, usually reserved for AMG models. It’s more likely this is an AMG 43 rather than a full-fat AMG 63 model, however. At the front, we can see a more slender headlight design than the latest C-Class and the grille is likely to mimic those seen on the rest of the Mercedes range. Unsurprisingly, there’s a blanked off section in the grille where a large 3-pointed star will sit. At the rear, we can see 2 airducts behind the rear wheels; a common design trait on current Mercedes models. Unlike the C-Class and E-Class, the rear number plate sits on the rear bumper rather than the bootlid. I’ve not seen inside the new CLE just yet but I expect the cabin to follow a similar layout to the latest Mercedes C-Class. This would mean a new infotainment system running the same MBUX software introduced in the current S-Class. It should be displayed on an 12.3-inch digital instrument panel, an 11.9-inch touchscreen. The screens will be separated from each other, rather than connected like the display Mercedes is using for its all-electric EQ models. Head-up display technology will also be available, but not the augmented reality HUD system found in the luxury S-Class. The latest MBUX system can also receive over-the-air updates from Mercedes. The Mercedes model portfolio reached a high of 50 vehicles in 2020 and brand executives have spoken in the past of a need to reduce complexity, especially with the rollout of the all-electric EQ range. Speaking earlier in that year, Mercedes chief technology officer Marcus Schäfer pointed to the brand’s convertible offerings as being “high density”, with the recently axed SLC, C-Class Cabriolet and E-Class Cabriolet all vying for space in a market that isn’t a big money maker. However, Schäfer admitted that from a branding perspective the coupe and cabriolet models are important; for a premium car company such as Mercedes, being in this space lays down an important marker. “We want to focus on these models”, he explained. “They have their niche and their purpose. That’s why we are going to tailor exactly the right vehicle in this segment. There’s more to come on the coupé and cabriolet side in this mid-segment but it’s going to take a little bit more time before we can speak about it”. The brand has already reinvented the fullsize SL as a sportier and more purposeful offering using a new platform developed by AMG. Technical details are unknown at this stage, and an unveiling of the CLE is some way off. However, the CLE is likely to be based on the same MRA-2 platform as the new C-Class and S-Class, rather than the SL’s new AMG-designed architecture. The flexibility of MRA-2 means that 4- and 6-cylinder power is possible, appealing to the CLE’s likely buyer. The latest C-Class is a 4-cylinder only affair and much of the CLE line-up will be, too. The next C 63 model will take on a new high-performance 4-cylinder hybrid engine derived from the M139 2.0-litre turbo engine used in the A 45 superhatch. Although the larger S-Class, also on the MRA-2 platform, could lend a 3.0-litre turbocharged straight-6 with 48 volt mild hybrid assistance, if Mercedes thinks a 6-cylinder option will be necessary. While the car spied here is a 4-seat convertible, expects there will also be a fixed-roof coupe version of the CLE, though the model line-up is likely to be capped at just 2, with no plans for a new mid-size, 4-door coupe to sit between the CLA and the CLS to rival the BMW 4 Series Gran Coupe. +++
+++ The Countryman is MINI ’s second bestselling car, so it’s no surprise the British firm is working on an all-new model. I expect retro-styling to return as well as pure-electric power to feature for the first time. Given Mini is well underway with the development programme of the new Countryman, I expect it to arrive sometime in early 2023. It’ll retain a similar retro-style design as its predecessors, although Mini will increase the size of its SUV; a move made necessary because of the need to accommodate a new, smaller, all-electric SUV to sit beneath the Countryman in the brand’s range. To do this, the next Countryman will become the largest Mini ever. A Cooper S version will return, as evidenced by the quad-exhaust set-up of a prototype spied testing on the Nurburgring. The performance model will retain Mini ’s 2.0-litre turbocharged 4-cylinder engine, but will also make use of 48 volt electrification for more power and reduced emissions, offering 218 hp and 360 Nm. Testing on the road is a less sporty model, likely the Cooper variant that will be most popular with buyers. It’s still heavily camouflaged but we can see a subtler variation of the front lower grille than the one on the S. The rear bumper is also much cleaner, forgoing the quad exhaust tips for hidden exhausts. Mini ’s design language is set to evolve with the new Countryman. We’ll get our first official look at this new design ethos with the next-generation 3-door Hatch, which will be the first among Mini’s many new arrivals due soon. Previously leaked images from China already point to an evolution of the brand’s grille and a new rear facia featuring trapezoidal tail-lights. The current car is around 4.3 metres long, but the newcomer will stretch this to almost 4.5 metres, leaving space for the new small electric SUV. As such, the new Countryman will rival the likes of the Audi Q3 and the Volvo XC40, almost moving up a segment. The new SUV will be underpinned by an evolution of the current model’s platform, known as FAAR, but it won’t be built at Mini’s factory in the United Kingdom. Countryman production will move from its current home in Holland to a BMW production line in Leipzig, Germany. When it comes to engines, the current PHEV version will probably be dropped in favour of 48 volt mild hybrid units, with a full EV also offered for the first time. “I think once you get EVs to a certain range, for the Mini use case, I don’t see a big market for PHEV”, hinted former Mini boss Bernd Körber last year. The petrol engine range will kick off with Mini’s familiar 136 hp 1.5-litre 3-cylinder turbo petrol. This engine will form the basis of the 48 volt mild hybrid version, too, possibly badged Countryman Cooper. The unit’s outputs will stand at 170 hp and 280 Nm of torque, with the 48-volt system enabling engine-off coasting and improved efficiency. The fully electric Countryman will be the most radical addition to the line-up. The new iX1 uses the same FAAR platform so that car’s 64.7 kWh battery will make its way over to the electric Countryman. Back in 2017, Mini claimed the electric Countryman would have a range of around 420 km and it looks like it will pretty much nail the brief with the iX1 sibling offering up to 410 km of range. We should also see charging rates of up to 130 kW for a 10 to 80 percent top-up in 29 minutes. A pair of electric motors (one on each axle) should produce around 313 hp and 494 Nm, giving a 0-100 kph time of roughly 5.7 seconds. The ‘ALL4’ badging on the Countryman’s hot Cooper S models should return given the iX1 utilises four-wheel drive. +++
+++ It says something about modern life that talking to a softly spoken, fact-based scientist whose eloquence is inversely proportional to his showiness can be described as refreshing. Yet that’s exactly how an hour with TOYOTAResearch Institute boss Gill Pratt feels. He’s compelling not just for how he talks but also for the brainpower he flexes. Today his job titles at Toyota include chief scientist, executive fellow for research and CEO of the Toyota Research Institute; his past includes stints as a robotics and computing lead for the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and an associate professor in electrical engineering and computer science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He’s also notable for being explicit about the fact that he can’t prove that he’s right; and for acknowledging that his employ allows for him to be accused of having vested interests. However, as he explains here in his own words, he’s absolutely certain about 2 things: that the climate crisis is real and that us rushing into a future of only battery-electric vehicle (BEVs) isn’t in the planet’s best interests. Question: Why should we listen to you? Answer: “No one has to take me seriously, of course. But what I try to do is to be as fact-based and as science-based as possible and talk about all the different sides of the issue. That approach is natural for me; I was a teacher for many years. What I’ve learned is that hype is the enemy. It leads people to misperceive the trajectory of what’s going to happen and leads to bad decisions getting made. Hype closes minds. It leads to too much investment in one approach over another; and a hype cycle leads to disappointment when what was promised doesn’t transpire, which is bad for everyone”. Q: Are electric cars a mistake? A: “No. I accept that today, for some people, battery electric is exactly the right answer. But independent research suggests that’s not true for everyone. Lithium ion batteries aren’t without consequence. They’re made using rare, mined materials (in contrast, an engine is made using more common materials) and weigh a lot. The grid energy mix is also variable around the world. “Cradle to grave, the evidence is that PHEV [plug-in hybrid] and BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles) are very close, certainly close enough to suggest that picking one over the other as the ultimate solution isn’t currently always the correct answer and that PHEV more often than not currently is the better choice. PHEVs aren’t perfect either, but the batteries can be used to their full potential and there are no issues with range anxiety. They provide a solution that can help get people into cleaner transport, rather than force them to hold off switching as they have concerns. What I have a problem with is the correct solution being prescribed. The correct solution isn’t a single technology, or at least we can’t say that it is with any confidence today. I would rather see the technologies that make the most difference to the planet available and the technologies that could make the most difference to the planet being investigated with potential for real-world application”. Q: But you acknowledge the climate crisis, so surely zero-emissions should be the goal? A: “Yes, it should. We have to get there, but the whole world won’t arrive there at the same time. Every bit of CO2 we put out is with us for hundreds of years. We’re building up a reservoir that will last for up to a thousand years and which won’t reduce until we go below net zero. We have to have an answer that reduces as much CO2 output as possible according to the region’s challenges, adapting as the answers change with time. That’s why BEVs aren’t the right answer for the whole world right now. They are for certain parts of the world but not everywhere. It’s right that everyone should be ambitious. But zero tailpipe emissions doesn’t mean zero emissions. What about the infrastructure? What about the power generation? What about the raw-material availability?” Q: Why aren’t more people listening to you? A: “There’s an unfortunate tendency to believe that we can predict things that are really beyond our control. It’s very comforting to plot a slope of past events and project a dotted line into the future running the same way, but the truth is the future is uncertain. What we can say with certainty today is that climate change is an incredibly serious issue and we have to get to net-zero carbon by 2050. But if the science on the best ways to get there changes, we need to follow it, and the truth is that we don’t know what technologies are going to get us to the best way to rid ourselves of that CO2. “Nobody can say with confidence what the battery supply chain will look like. Nobody can predict the geopolitical shifts of the next 30 years. Will there be another pandemic? The only way to resolve questions that you can’t answer, in my view, is to keep your options open, not narrow them down to a single choice”. Q: So do you think a plan to end ICE (cars with Internal Combustion Engines, red.) sales in 2030 is too soon? A: “I’m not sure. Of course, Toyota will comply with the law. But is the proposal the best way to reduce carbon? I don’t know. Maybe in 15 and certainly in 20 years’ time, it could make sense. But in 8? I’m not so sure. The mistake being made now is that some people think EVs are the silver bullet. There’s so much genuine good being done to reduce CO2, and I think reduction targets are a great thing to measure the outcomes. But I really worry in the short term that prescribing the way to accomplish that reduction is going to result in an oscillation. We might build a load of cars that customers won’t buy because the charging infrastructure isn’t there, or they might not buy them because the up-front cost is too much. You can’t force people to buy something. Now, I don’t know that’s going to happen; I’m not stating it as a fact. But if you don’t let the marketplace or the science or the research answer your questions, you constrain your ability to deliver the right answers”. Q: Where are EVs the right answer? A: “In some parts of Europe, they probably are. In Norway, the amount of green energy is very high, so the electric cars they have can run very cleanly. They’ve also heavily invested in charging infrastructure, so that issue isn’t there. They work, and that’s wonderful. But if you head into Eastern Europe, the equation isn’t so good. They need to get there, of course, but today the energy creation there is heavily reliant on coal and the charging infrastructure is a long way behind. Yes, we can demand that they change, but asking them to copy Norway just isn’t feasible; they don’t have the same natural resources. And that means there might be better ways to achieve carbon-reduction goals than just setting a date to switch to BEVs”. Q: You have to see that declarations of dates for a switch to evs are only driving uptake now, though, and that has to be a positive? A: “You can force change in lots of ways. The question is whether you’re forcing a good change. The vast majority of people are faced with range anxiety when they consider an electric car, and the solution offered by car makers is to sell cars with bigger and bigger batteries. The result is bigger batteries with capacity that rarely gets used and heavier cars. I can talk about that from experience. My wife and I bought a Tesla Model X, because we’re good friends with a chief engineer on that car. It’s an incredible car. But my wife used it to commute 50 km a day, which meant 90% of the battery wasn’t being used most of the time. We were just dragging all this weight, all these raw materials, around. We all know that we’re in an era of limited battery supply. Well, couldn’t those battery cells have been used for a better purpose in 8 PHEVs like the Toyota RAV4 Plug-in Hybrid where the battery capacity would have contributed to much more total emissions savings on almost every journey?” Q: Some would say your views and your employer make you an enemy of solving the climate crisis. What would you say to that? A: “In a hyped environment, people often pick on one company for not doing ‘the right thing’. They become the enemy, even though they’re just out there experimenting. They may win, they may lose, but you can be sure their feet will be held to the fire. I believe it’s much more effective to allow the marketplace and the research and development labs to figure out and optimise the answer. And it’s also much more respectful to the customers to give every single one of them a way that they can contribute the most that they can, given the circumstances that they’re in. They might live in an apartment; they might have to drive long distances in an area with no chargers. There are many reasons why BEVs can’t be the only answer. There’s no single answer for everyone. I see diversity of options as a strength, rather than a weakness. On climate change, my view is that we would be in a better place if we kept in focus that CO2 is the enemy, not a particular drivetrain type”. Q: What do you see as the drawbacks of batteries? A: “Batteries are essentially a trade-off: between charging speed and durability, for instance, and between capacity and price. And on price, we’ve hit an issue: it has actually started to go up a bit, because some of the things that are going on in the world. Then there’s the issue of the availability of raw materials, the supply chain that’s required to support the manufacture and the environmental impact of mining. Recycling can answer some of that, but do we have the answers to do that in a responsible way now? I’m not certain that we do. And then there’s the question of how we lower the amount of CO2 emitted in battery production. The list goes on. “To be clear, these problems are surmountable. But it’s a matter of time and about a rate of growth, not an overnight switch. There’s an element of hubris to declaring how many electric cars should be made by a certain date, because nobody can accurately predict the supply of raw materials or the impact on the planet of creating and using them. That data simply doesn’t exist. Until we know, I believe it’s often better to use the batteries we have as often as possible, and that’s where hybrids have an advantage”. Q: Where does hydrogen fit in? A: “Fuel cells are an incredibly attractive means of fuelling vehicles for the future. They don’t require the scale of mining that a battery requires and they can be much closer to true zero-emissions vehicles than a BEV. But it’s going to be a long journey. The industry needs to move to carbon-neutral hydrogen production, and in automotive, we have to recognise that there are other areas that need to decarbonise using hydrogen also: fertilisers, feedstock, petrochemicals, cement and steel making, for instance. There’s also the issue of distribution. The network isn’t there yet, which is another reason why it might be best to focus efforts on heavy transport and buses, which drive fixed routes and have designated hubs where they start and stop. That doesn’t mean that hydrogen-powered passenger cars are a bad thing to do. In fact, we need them to get the scale of production to bring costs down. Also, we learned so much as a result of building both generation one and generation-2 of the Mirai, and the technology remains valid in whatever vehicle it is applied to. “We’re just learning where the immediate sweet spot for its use is. And for the intermediate future, we think it will have the biggest impact in heavy-duty applications. We say that because we’ve learned from what we’ve done so far, and I believe it’s okay to learn, even if you don’t alight on the right answer the first time”. Q: For large parts of the world, it feels like the path is already set and your words are unlikely to change much. How does that make you feel? A: “You know, what we all want is for the earth to be clean and green and for climate change to stop being an issue. And we know how hard it is to get there. Predicting the right calls across that complex journey is hard, almost impossible. That’s why I argue passionately for keeping options open and exploring every path, not just a singular one. I believe strongly that most people want to live good lives. The idea of confirmation bias (where people believe each other just because a frenzy has whipped up around a certain point of view) has been around since we lived in caves. But it has got worse (unbelievably so) and we have to get a handle on it. My hope is that at least some of the stuff that I say helps people on all sides to say ‘hey, you know, I guess that does make sense’. We need to temper some of the hype. Toyota has incredibly ambitious targets for BEVs around the world: around one third of our production by 2030. But we believe other drivetrains will also be needed as well for some time, and the best answer to reduce net CO2 emissions is to give each customer, regardless of circumstance, a way for them to most contribute to CO2 reduction. In other words, we believe that diverse circumstances call for diverse solutions”. +++
