+++ China understood before anyone else that the mobility of the future would be electric. The world’s largest car market also understood that the mobility of the future will be software-driven. This is why the land of the dragon is investing massively in AUTONOMOUS DRIVING . The city of Beijing, for example, has just adopted updated legislation to encourage the development of driver assistance technologies, so that it can introduce driverless public and private transport services before others. From 1 April 2025 (the date on which the new law comes into force), self-driving vehicles will be able to circulate freely in the city. All you have to do to start the experiment is apply to the relevant office provided that the vehicles in question pass the preliminary safety assessments. The law will allow driverless vehicles to be tested in cars, taxis, buses and even trams. The city has also stated that it plans to invest heavily in the development of a series of infrastructures to improve the connection and communication of intelligent vehicles. Beijing’s initiative is not an isolated one as there are around twenty other cities in China. This is one of the reasons why Tesla should also start testing Cybercabs in the shadow of the Great Wall. In addition to Elon Musk’s company, the Chinese company Baidu, with its driverless passenger transport subsidiary Apollo, has declared that it will put a fleet of 1.000 robot taxis into service in the city of Wuhan. At the same time, Apollo has obtained authorisation to launch autonomous car-sharing trials in the city of Hong Kong. +++
+++ BYD continued to rapidly expand in 2024, selling 4.27 million vehicles; an impressive 41.3% jump over the 3 million sales in 2023. However, the company did not usurp Tesla as the largest seller of battery-electric vehicles. The Chinese car-making giant sold 1.764.992 electric cars in 2024; a 12% increase over 2023. It also sold 2.485.378 plug-in hybrid vehicles; a 72.8% surge compared to 2023. December was a record-breaking month for the company, selling 509.440 vehicles. However, BYD is expected to surpass Ford and Honda for total 2024 sales, positioning itself as one of the world’s largest car manufacturers. The vast majority of BYD’s sales comes from China, with roughly half a million coming from overseas markets. The rise of BYD in recent years has been nothing short of spectacular. Not too long ago, the company was a small brand selling bland, boring vehicles in China, but thanks in part to the local government’s heavily subsidized programs, BYD has established an enviable manufacturing footprint and launched several compelling vehicles. It also operates numerous sub-brands catering to different areas of the market. BYD is also a battery giant. It’s the second-largest battery supplier in China and sells packs to companies including Toyota, Nio and Tesla. The company installed a total of 194.7 GWh worth of batteries in vehicles and energy storage facilities last year. +++
+++ Even though 2024 will not be remembered as a good year for the automotive industry, manufacturers have continued to introduce new products, proving that there are still opportunities and that consumers have more choice than ever before. As of January 2024, the industry has seen the introduction of 162 new models (excluding entry-level rebadges) from 8 different markets around the world. The new arrivals are not all global products, as the industry is moving strongly towards localised production and cars adapted to local tastes. Here is a summary of what was presented during the year. Almost half of the new cars presented this year came from Chinese manufacturers. A total of 79 models were presented by companies from this country. Far behind were European manufacturers, who presented 47 models. BYD came second in terms of new products. Being the biggest seller in CHINA , it is not unusual to see a lot of movement in its line-up. The Chinese manufacturer introduced 14 new models: BYD Qin L, Seal 06, Seal 06 GT (electric), Sealion 05, Shark (electric), Song L DM, Xia, Yuan Up (electric); Denza N9, Z9 hatchback and Z9 saloon; Yangwang U7 and U9; Fang Cheng Bao 8. China’s Geely presented 10 new cars: 3 from Lynk & Co, 3 from the Geely brand, 2 from Zeekr, 1 from Jiyue and 1 from LEVC. Despite China’s lead in the ranking of country origins, it is the Volkswagen Group that has revealed the most new models in 2024. Although not its finest hour, the German group has been quite dynamic in terms of revelations. Since January, a total of 19 new models have been unveiled, including 8 Audis, 6 Volkswagens, 2 Skodas, 1 Cupra, 1 Porsche and 1 Lamborghini. The 13 Stellantis brands presented 12 new models. Opel/Vauxhall excelled with 2 new vehicles: the Frontera and the second generation Grandland. The other brands presented 1 model each. Chrysler and Ram did not present anything. The Japanese presented 16 models and the Koreans followed with 8 new products. The American manufacturers presented 7 new models, followed by the Indian (3), Vietnamese (1) and Iranian with 1 model. Neither Russian, Turkish nor Malaysian car manufacturers presented new cars in 2024. In contrast to its outstanding performance in 2023, Toyota, the world’s largest car manufacturer, presented only 3 new products: a new edition of the 4Runner, the BZ3X and the Urban Cruiser. SUVs were once again the preferred body type for car manufacturers presenting new cars. They account for 57 percent of new introductions (92 new models). China presented 38 new models compared to 24 by European manufacturers. Japan, the United States and South Korea followed, with 14, 7 and 5 new models presented respectively. Saloons are still alive mainly thanks to China. Of the 24 new models, 20 were presented by Chinese manufacturers and only 2 by European manufacturers, 1 from Korea and 1 from Japan. BYD and Geely led the way with 4 and 3 new models presented respectively. The third most popular segment was small cars with 15 new models, followed by sports cars with 12 new models. +++
+++ NORWAY is still the country where the most electric cars are sold in the world. In 2024, a total of 114.409 (+9.4%) were delivered; a number that corresponds to an 88.9% share of the market (in 2023 it was 82.4%). Despite the result above the world average, the political goal of reaching 100% per year remains and the government is expected to confirm the tax benefits for the year just started: tax exemption for electric cars, while taxes on new combustion cars will be higher from 1 April 2025. The Tesla Model Y still leads the way as in previous years. The electric SUV recorded 16.858 new registrations (the market share is thus 13.1 percent). However, it must be said that the Model Y lost some ground compared to 2023 (23.088 new registrations and a market share of 18.2 percent). The Model 3, thanks to its restyling, took second place with 7.264 new registrations and 5.6 percent market share. In third place was the Volvo EX30, with 7.229 registrations, followed by the Volkswagen ID.4 (7.222), the Toyota BZ4X (6.007), the Skoda Enyaq (4.610), the Nissan Ariya (3.772) and the Volkswagen ID.3 (3.634). The only hybrid car in the 2024 Top-10 bestselling cars in Norway was the Toyota Yaris (3.523 new registrations), just ahead of the Audi Q4 e-Tron (3.449). In the brand ranking, Tesla leads with 24.259 sales in Norway, ahead of the Volkswagen brand with 14.000 new registrations. Toyota is third in the brand ranking with 13.678 sales; just under half of these were accounted for by the BZ4X. Chinese manufacturers gained relevance in Norway as MG, BYD and Xpeng all exceeded their 2023 results. BYD is 13th with 2.669 units and MG is 10th with 4.591 cars sold. Looking at the Germans, BMW placed fifth with 6.952 sales, Audi 8th with 5.501 units and Mercedes 11th with 4.021 new cars; Porsche almost tripled its 2023 result and placed 18th with 1.523 new registrations. Volvo took 4th position in the top-10 with 11.118 sales, Skoda is at the 6th spot (6.533) and Hyundai comes next (5.782). The 9th place of the top-10 is occupied by Nissan with 5.484 sales. +++
+++ PLUG-IN HYBRID CARS will be subjected to more stringent emissions tests in 2025 to better represent real-world use cycles. It’s thought the changes could have significant implications for company car drivers, with some models expected to see big jumps in tax bands, which are based on CO2 emissions. Existing Euro 6e emission standards will be superseded by so-called Euro 6e-bis tests, applicable to all new models launched from 1 January 2025. This will then be updated at the end of the year (31 December) to include all cars on sale, meaning existing models will have to be retested in order to comply. Previously, the emissions tests were conducted over a simulated distance of 800 km, but Euro 6e-bis ups this to 2.200 km. To illustrate the effect this has on a PHEV’s emissions and fuel consumption in real world driving, the International Council on Clean Transport (ICCT) analysed the performance of a BMW X1 xDrive25e under the revised conditions. The ICCT said: “Over the past several years, it has become evident that the currently used UF curve does not reflect the real usage of PHEVs resulting in unrepresentatively low official CO2 emission values. This leads to an excessive gap between the real-world fuel consumption and the official value determined during type-approval”. The new parameters saw the X1’s emissions rise from around 45 g/km, to 96 g/km; comparable with the most efficient pure petrol models. A further advancement in emissions standards is expected in 2027, when ‘Euro 6e-bis-FCM’ comes into force. Under these circumstances, tested over a total distance of 4.260 km, the same BMW is said to emit around 122 g/km. As it stands, only cars bought brand new will be affected by the updated emissions standards; there are no plans to backdate the bandings for existing company car users. This is in contrast to the proposed introduction of VED road tax for electric car drivers due later this year, which will be applicable to both new and existing electric vehicles. +++
+++ Less than a year after construction began, the new mega-factory in Shanghai dedicated to the production of TESLA Megapack energy storage batteries is complete and operational. Mass production is expected to reach full capacity in the first quarter. The construction of the plant, which is located next to Tesla’s existing vehicle gigafactory in the Lingang area and marks the company’s first energy storage plant outside the US, set a new ‘speed’ record, as it took even less time than Tesla’s first Shanghai plant to come on stream. Tesla’s second factory in China, which covers 200.000 square metres and represents an investment of about 1.45 billion yuan ($202 million), will mainly produce Megapacks for the domestic and export markets. Specifically, the plant can assemble 10.000 Megapack units per year, equivalent to about 40 GWh of energy storage capacity. According to Tesla, each Megapack can store more than 3 MWh of energy, enough to power about 3.600 homes for 1 hour. The Megapacks will use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Tesla has signed its first Megapack orders with the Shanghai Lingang Economic Development Group. The main supplier of Megapack battery cells is CATL (80 percent), but the company has partnered with FinDreams, a battery manufacturing unit of BYD, to supply battery cells for the Megapacks starting in the first quarter of 2025. The Chinese Megafactory, I recall, complements the one already in operation at Lathorp, California. The American plant will also reach an annual production of 40 GWh once it is at full capacity. +++
+++ A comprehensive overhaul of the VOLKSWAGEN ID.3 is being prepared, with the brand promising a new look, a revised interior and big technology leaps in terms of efficiency and battery performance. This is part of Volkswagen’s rejuvenation programme, which starts with a late-2025 launch of the new small car possibly called ID.Polo. The renosed ID.3 will then follow, using a modified version of the MEB platform. VW’s development boss Kai Grünitz told: “We will bring a re-skin for the ID.3, with a completely new design language going back to where we originally came from, and return to what Volkswagen is known for”. His comments reference VW’s design head Andy Mindt, whose first all-new model will be the Polo-badged production version of the ID.2all concept. I expect the updated family hatchback to feature a more defined two-box shape rather than the near-monovolume silhouette of the current ID.3. VW will achieve this by pushing the base of the windscreen back and making it more upright, giving the car a longer bonnet and a more rounded nose; something we’ve already seen on the ID.2all concept. Volkswagen could also lower the roofline and raise the beltline, giving the ID.3 a more traditional hatchback shape, disguising the inherently taller body by using a black finish on the sills and lower parts of the front and rear bumpers. In keeping with Mindt’s core design philosophy of familiarity and trustworthiness, the front end should retain a family resemblance to the ID.2all, in the shape of the headlights, ‘grille’ insert and lower bumper. This will also be reinforced by a solid C-pillar that apes the Golf’s, plus more pronounced wheelarches and large alloy wheels. The tailgate is likely to be body-coloured, with critical aero elements more subtly integrated across both the rear screen and rear bumper. A full-width light bar is also expected, with simpler, cleaner lenses. The exterior isn’t the only element to be revised, with more extensive changes planned for the cabin. A major part of this will be a reinvention of the dashboard and interfaces, with the introduction of some physical buttons, as seen on the ID.2all. A solid uplift in interior quality is also on the cards, with more textured and soft-touch materials to boost the ID.3’s image. Volkswagen will also be making changes under the skin, with Grünitz telling: “We also have a lot of improvements in terms of battery costs and performance, and will bring new features and driver-assistance functions. So there will be a huge improvement, both in terms of the cost for us, but also benefit for the customers”. In current form, the ID.3 offers 4 battery sizes, from an ‘urban-focused’ 52 kWh capacity through to the top-spec 79 kWh battery pack on the hot GTX. The larger battery offers the longest range of any variant, at a quoted 590 kms, and I suspect this will only improve with new battery tech. Fundamentally, the MEB platform will maintain many of its key technical elements, including a rear-drive layout and sophisticated multi-link rear suspension. The switch to front-mounted motors and a more basic rear suspension will be reserved for the smaller MEB Entry models. One thing the next ID.3 won’t do is morph into a GTI, with VW reserving that moniker for models that ‘feel’ like a GTI, instead of just looking like one. Development boss Kai Grünitz told: “Bringing performance to battery-electric vehicles is easy, you see that in all brands. But creating fun-driving vehicles is much more difficult, so the first question is ‘what’s the DNA of something like a GTI?’ How much power do we put in?” Volkswagen will continue refining the GTX label, potentially bringing with it e-motors that mimic gearchanges, as seen on the likes of Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 N, and even expand the GTX branding into internal-combustion engines. “We have a lot of ideas about what to do with this”, added Grünitz. “You will see this, both for GTI and GTX”. +++
+++ XPENG remains one of China’s leading carmakers to watch. Its founder and CEO, He Xiaopeng, has written an internal staff letter in which he states his goals for 2025 and warns that a ‘price war’ on electric vehicles is imminent. According to Xiaopeng, the carmaker can make it to the top of the industry in China, but the new year will be full of challenges and fierce competition. Only the best will endure. Xiaopeng told his staff that companies without innovation cannot grow and that resilience remains a must for those who want to survive in an increasingly competitive market. Over the next ten years, Xiaopeng wants to become a world-leading company in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) powered cars, and to get there, he plans to launch a new or redesigned model every 3 months from 2025. The company also plans to hire more than 6.000 people next year. Xpeng is already present in 30 countries, but intends to exceed 60 by the end of 2025. Although China is the most important market, Xpeng’s CEO wants to increase deliveries abroad and become China’s number one mid- to high-end NEV (New Energy Vehicle) brand in terms of sales share within the next 10 years. He Xiaopeng then reminded his employees that global expansion requires close cooperation between international and domestic colleagues in all departments. +++