++++ Ford CEO Jim Hackett famously said he wouldn’t ride in an AUTONOMOUS vehicle on public roads because “the trust isn’t real high”, but it appears consumers are slowing warming to the technology. According to a study by AAA, the number of people who said they were afraid to ride in a fully autonomous vehicle dropped from 78 percent to 63 percent in the past year. Male drivers and millennials were the most trusting as only half said they would be afraid to take a spin in an autonomous vehicle. A significant number of people are still afraid of autonomous driving technology but AAA’s Greg Brannon noted “Americans are starting to feel more comfortable with the idea of self-driving vehicles” as 20 million more drivers would now trust them compared to a year ago. While autonomous technology doesn’t get drunk or distracted like humans, only 13 percent of people surveyed said they would feel safer with autonomous vehicles on the road. Somewhat shockingly, 46 percent of people said they would actually feel less safe. Other key takeaways from the study include the fact that women are more likely to be afraid of riding in an autonomous vehicle and would feel less safe with them driving on the road. This could represent a serious challenge to automakers as previous studies have indicated women play a major role in vehicle purchasing decisions. Another interesting statistic is the number of people who said they want semi-autonomous technology in their next vehicle has fallen over the past year. 51 percent of people surveyed want the technology while 27 percent want nothing to do with it. AAA speculates some of the reluctance to accept autonomous driving technology could come from the fact that 73 percent of drivers consider themselves “better-than-average drivers”. That’s certainly not the case as AAA notes more than 90 percent of crashes are the result of human error. +++
+++ BMW is pulling out all the stops to ensure the new 3 Series, which goes under the internal codename G20, possesses the stylistic appeal, performance credentials, dynamic ability and overall technical prowess it needs to claw back the gains made by its keenest executive class rivals, most notably the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, which officials have described as the clear benchmark. Prototype saloon versions of the new 3 Series spied testing on the roads around BMW’s engineering headquarters in Munich recently indicate it will continue the company’s tradition of evolutionary design change, with an appearance that leans heavily on that of the larger 5 Series, as well as influence from the X2. Credit for the design of the new model rests with former BMW brand design boss, Karim Habib, who moved to Infiniti last year. As the first 3 Series model to be fully honed in BMW’s Munich-based wind tunnel, the G20 is also claimed to match the aerodynamic efficiency of the 5 Series. The most slippery body style is said to have a drag co-efficient of 0.22. The new 3 Series has grown in most key dimensions. Nothing is official, but Munich insiders suggest overall length is up by 60 mm to around 4.703 mm. Some 20 mm of this is said to be concentrated within a lengthened wheelbase, which has increased to almost 2.830 mm, up from 2.810 mm. By comparison, the current C-Class is 4.696 mm in length and has a 2.840mm wheelbase. The new 3 Series is based on BMW’s latest CLAR (CLuster ARchitecture) platform, as used by all recent BMW models, and features a longitudinally mounted engine. In keeping with developments already seen on the larger 5 Series, it benefits from a range of weight-saving initiatives, including the greater use of hot-formed high-strength steel within the main body structure, to cut the already highly competitive kerbweight of today’s 6th-generation model by up to 50 kg, despite the larger dimensions. The volume of 3 Series sales rules out the use of carbonfibre, so there’ll be no Carbon Core structural developments like those seen on the headlining 7 Series. However, BMW’s body construction specialists suggest the G20 will feature a much larger number of cast aluminium components and a greater percentage of magnesium in load-bearing areas. All told, the weightsaving developments are expected to give the lightest variant in the range, the 3-cylinder 318i, a kerb weight of about 1.425 kg. Together with the reduction in weight, the CLAR platform is also claimed to bring an improvement in structural rigidity that, in a move similar to that undertaken with the 5 Series, forms the basis for a change in philosophy for the chassis tuning. Recognising a growing customer desire for additional ride comfort, BMW is looking to provide standard versions of the new 3 Series with more compliant properties, in a move aimed at matching the smoothness of its key rival, the Mercedes-Benz C Class. +++
+++ German carmakers hope a network of high-power charging stations they are rolling out with Ford will set an industry standard for plugs and protocols that will give them an edge over ELECTRIC car rivals. At the moment, Tesla and carmakers in Japan and Germany use different plugs and communication protocols to link batteries to chargers, but firms building the charging networks needed for electric vehicles to become mainstream say the number of plug formats will need to be limited to keep costs down. Carmakers behind the winning technology will benefit from having an established supply chain and an extensive network, making their vehicles potentially more attractive to customers worried about embarking upon longer journeys, analysts say. Manufacturers that back losing plugs, however, could end up with redundant research and development and may have to invest to adapt assembly lines and vehicle designs so their customers can use the most widespread fast-charging networks. Swiss bank UBS has estimated that $360 billion will need to be spent over the next 8 years to build global charging infrastructure to keep pace with electric car sales, and it will be key to limit the numerous technologies now in use. “The quick-charging marketplace might be growing fast but the issue of different types of connectivity and communication will need to be resolved going forward”, UBS said in a study published this month. To try to build critical mass for the Combined Charging System (CCS) favored by Europe, BMW, Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler, Ford and the Volkswagen group, which includes Audi and Porsche, said in November they would develop 400 high-power charging stations on main roads in 18 European countries by 2020. “In the end, it is about safe-guarding investments for those that are investing in electric mobility”, said Claas Bracklo, head of electromobility at BMW and the chairman of the Charging Interface Initiative (CharIN), which is backing CCS. “We have founded CharIN to build a position of power”. It is still early days for electric cars and difficult to predict which plug technology will prevail or even whether there will always be different ways to charge vehicles, unlike the one-size-fits-all nozzle that can refill all petrol cars. But there is a lot at stake for the carmakers ploughing billions of dollars into the development of batteries and electric cars. Besides CCS, there are 3 other standards that will charge batteries fast: Tesla’s Supercharger system, CHAdeMO, or Charge de Move, developed by Japanese firms including carmakers Nissan and Mitsubishi, and GB/T in China, the world’s biggest electric car market. “I think over time CHAdeMO and CCS converge, likely into the current CCS standard, and the jury is out as to what will happen to Tesla”, said Pasquale Romano, chief executive officer of Silicon Valley-based ChargePoint, which runs one of the world’s largest charging station networks. So far, there are about 7,000 CCS charging points worldwide, according to CharIN, with more than half in Europe. The European Union backs CCS as the standard for fast-charging but does not prohibit other plugs being installed. That compares with 16,639 charge points compatible with CHAdeMO (most in Japan and Europe) and 8,496 Tesla Superchargers, with the majority in the United States. In China, there are 127,434 GB/T charging stations, according to the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance. Just as in previous format wars such as the battle for videotape dominance between VHS and Betamax, each charging standard has its pros and cons. Tesla’s system is exclusive to its clients, for example, while CCS features a double-plug that can charge DC and AC, increasing the number of spots where drivers can recharge. CHAdeMO, meanwhile, allows cars to sell power from their batteries back to the grid, a process known as bi-directional charging that can help stabilize energy networks in times of demand swings and earn car owners some extra cash. “If I were Nissan, I’d be wanting to take that standard and make it the dominant one”, said Gerard Reid, founder of Alexa Capital that advises companies in the energy, technology and power infrastructure sectors. “It creates a competitive advantage for them”, he said. Most plugs used to charge cars at home use alternate current (AC) and are slow, so building networks that can power vehicles fast when on the road is seen as key by the industry, given many potential consumers still worry about battery range. Able to deliver more powerful direct current (DC), fast-chargers can load electric cars up to 7 times faster. The fastest DC stations, capable of delivering up to 400 kilowatts, can recharge cars within 10 minutes, a vast improvement on the 10-12 hours it can take to reload at some AC charging points today. Developers hope drivers will feel more confident about undertaking longer journeys if they know they can reboot with a quick pit stop similar to stopping at a petrol station. With that in mind, the joint venture set up by the German carmakers and Ford to install CCS fast-chargers has teamed up with companies that have service station networks in Europe: Shell, OMV, Germany’s Tank & Rast and retailer Circle K. For traditional carmakers, getting ahead in the electric car race is also about staying relevant in an industry that has been shaken up by Tesla. Elon Musk’s company is now worth $11 billion more than Ford, even though Tesla delivered just 76,230 cars in 2016 while the U.S. car industry pioneer sold 6.65 million vehicles. The German carmakers teaming up with Ford, however, believe their deeper pockets should give them the upper hand in the long run and they see charging technology as an important factor in the fight. For now, CCS, Supercharger and CHAdeMO plugs continue to be installed in Europe as well as the United States, while China is pressing ahead with GB/T, suggesting it is too early to call a winner in the plug wars; especially as no carmaker will want to lose out on the Chinese market. Tesla, for example, said in October it was modifying its Model S and Model X cars for China to add a second charge port compatible with the country’s GB/T fast-charging standard. Most other rivals are also incorporating the GB/T standard into their vehicles for China, which has ambitious quotas for electric car sales, although some industry officials still hope the country will adopt one of the other standards at some point. While sticking with developing its proprietary network for now, Tesla is a member of the CHAdeMO and CharIN initiatives. It is also selling adapters so owners of its cars in North America and Japan can use CHAdeMO charging stations. Tesla declined to comment on whether it would consider joining a rival charging standard at some point, a move analysts say could be a tipping point in the race for plug dominance. “For Tesla it was always very important to have a charging infrastructure for our clients from the get-go”, a spokeswoman said, adding that it welcomed all investment in car charging. Tomoko Blech, who represents CHAdeMO in Europe, said fussing over which standard would prevail was not helpful given that the electric car industry was still in its early days and carmakers should fight it out with their models. Some also argue there will always be several ways to charge battery-powered cars. “If you drive a petrol car you can fuel it any place in the world. This is the best you can get”, said Nicolas Meilhan, principal analyst at consultancy Frost & Sullivan. “You will not get that for electric vehicles”. +++
+++ When FORD reports 4th-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, costing $2,229 per tonne. U.S. steel is priced at $677 per ton. Republican U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a “natural hedge” for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford’s problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. “When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause” of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week’s Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles’ Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. “We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable”, a GM spokesman said in an email. A spokesman for Volkswagen said while the German automaker had announced it expected higher raw material prices in 2017, it would cut other costs to more than compensate for the increases. When asked about rising costs, a Jaguar Land Rover spokeswoman said Britain’s biggest carmaker deals with fluctuations in raw material prices by “working closely with our suppliers, and by being well-hedged where necessary”. Ford jolted the auto industry in December 2014 when it launched the current-generation F-150 pickup with an all-aluminum body, shaving 318 kg off its weight and boosting fuel economy. Ford’s F-series pickup represented the largest-scale use of aluminum in a high-volume vehicle in the auto industry, and required a level of technological risk-taking that had rarely been seen among the Detroit automakers. General Motors and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles have both stuck mostly with steel in recently unveiled revamped pickup models. Ford also uses a large amount of aluminum in some lower-volume SUV models. But the F-Series pickup, for decades America’s best-selling vehicle line, alone sold almost 900,000 units in the United States in 2017. That was close to 35 percent of Ford’s total U.S. sales. “These are very profitable vehicles. But a spike in aluminum prices will eat into those profits”, said Sam Fiorani, vice president of AutoForecast Solutions. But Michael Robinet, managing director of automotive advisory services at IHS Markit said: “I don’t think Ford is an outlier here. The entire industry is facing rising commodity costs and I think Ford has just chosen to highlight it”. +++
+++ JEEP is considering adding a new model that’s smaller than the Renegade, according to the brand’s boss Mike Manley. If the new ‘baby’ SUV gets the green light, it will be targeted at customers in Europe and other regions where small-sized vehicles are popular but not the U.S., Manley said. Just how small a Jeep can be? Well, the report goes on saying that the ‘baby’ Jeep will be shorter than 4 meters and that could be produced in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles’ (FCA) factory in Pomigliano near Naples in Italy, where the Fiat Panda is currently produced. Other sources reveal that FCA has been pondering the possible production of the entry-level Jeep since early 2017. The project has since been stopped and restarted many times. If the mini Jeep gets the final approval, it will be based on FCA’s smallest platform which currently is used by the Fiat Panda and 500, as well as the Lancia Ypsilon. FCA builds the 500 and Ypsilon at the Tychy factory in Poland, with production of the next-generation 2020 Panda also expected to be moved there from Italy. This leaves FCA with the need to replace the Panda with another model in Pomigliano which, when combined with Europe’s growing demand for small urban SUVs, might eventually persuade Jeep to go smaller than the Renegade. Jeep will follow the launch of the new Wrangler with an all-new Cherokee, its first pick-up and the return of the Grand Wagoneer by 2020, by which point the firm will also offer a plug-in hybrid version of every model in its range. The US brand is the world’s largest SUV maker and is using the launch of its most iconic model, the Wrangler (replaced for the first time since 2006) as a springboard for further growth towards annual sales of 2 million, up from 1.4 million in 2016. Jeep boss Mike Manley confirmed the new models due in the next 3 years, with the period beyond 2020 likely to include the firm’s first electric car. First, Jeep is about to get sales of the Compass to a high level in Europe. Manley said this SUV is “crucial” for the brand as it competes in Europe’s largest segment. It will be followed this time next year by an all-new Cherokee, which sits above the Compass in Jeep’s range. Also in 2018, Jeep will launch a mild-hybrid 48V version of every model in its line-up. Each will be powered by a 2.0-litre turbocharged 4-cylinder petrol engine and mild-hybrid system that allows for improved torque delivery for off-road driving, better fuel economy and quieter on-road manners, according to Manley. By 2020, Jeep will have launched a plug-in hybrid version of every model in its range, including the Wrangler. Manley wouldn’t be drawn on the arrival of pure-electric models but said they were inevitable given how economy regulations around the world are tightening. Jeep has recently launched a 717 hp Trackhawk version of its Grand Cherokee, which, Manley said, is important to give a ‘halo effect’ to the range. The marque also plans to offer customers more luxurious versions of its cars, including more models in premium Summit trim and a return of the range-topping Grand Wagoneer seven-seater in 2020, a year after the launch of its first pick-up. +++
+++ LEXUS could use the Geneva Motor Show to introduce an entry-level crossover to slot beneath the NX. Nothing is official but the model could be unveiled in March and take inspiration from the UX concept which originally debuted at the 2016 Paris Motor Show. Little is known about the model but Lexus International executive vice president Yoshihiro Sawa has previously confirmed plans for a production version of the UX. At the time, he said the model is “not so far away” and would play a big role in attracting younger customers to the brand. Lexus’ North American group vice president and general manager, Jeff Bracken, has also stated “Our dealers are all over us to produce that concept vehicle”, He added, “It’s something that our consumers are looking for”. Little is known about the production model but the company has already trademarked the UX 200, UX 250, and UX 250h monikers in the United States. There’s no word on specifications but the crossover would likely be offered with 4-cylinder engines including a hybrid option. The concept measured 4.400 mm with a wheelbase that spanned 2.640 mm. If the production model has similar dimensions, it would be slightly larger than the Mercedes GLA but smaller than the Audi Q3. +++
+++ MINI recently unveiled its facelifted lineup at the North American International Auto Show and a new report is claiming big changes are on the horizon. A handful of BMW and Mini models ride on front-wheel UKL platform but the company has reportedly determined its upcoming FAAR architecture is too expensive to be used on MINI models. As a result, the company tried to convince Toyota to jointly-develop a new small car platform. However, those talks fell through and pushed BMW to pursue a partnership with Great Wall. The first model based on the new platform will debut in 2023 and is tentatively known as the Metro Runner. It will reportedly be followed by a Clubman-like Metro Cruiser and a Metro Adventurer which is billed as a smaller replacement for the Countryman. The Mini Convertible, on the other hand, will reportedly be dropped. Speaking of models getting the axe, the BMW 1-Series three-door hatchback will be dropped next year. It will eventually be joined by the 2-Series Convertible and 2-Series Gran Tourer. In related news, the next-generation Rolls-Royce Ghost will be offered as an electric vehicle. On the BMW side, plans for an i5 and i9 have reportedly been scrapped. However, we can expect an all-new i7 and a crossover-inspired iX1 which will apparently replace the i3. The i8 successor will reportedly become a “brand-shaper” that “combines the best of all worlds” and will help to define the company for the 21st century. Three proposals are reportedly under consideration including everything from a modest redesign and powertrain upgrade to a radical performance plug-in hybrid with up to 800 hp. +++
+++ ROLLS-ROYCE will show off their SUV in front of potential customers during multiple “closed-room” events starting this summer. Codenamed Cullinan, the SUV is expected to push the British luxury car maker’s annual sales figures past 5,000 units per year. In 2016, Rolls-Royce sold 4,011 cars, only to see sales dip by 16% to 3,362 units last year. Unlike other luxury SUVs, the Cullinan’s platform is unique to the brand. Company CEO Torsten Müller-Ötvos even stated that they won’t be “using mass-manufactured body shells”, because it “undermines exclusivity massively”. In other words, Rolls-Royce knows that their customers aren’t looking to get the same deal Bentley Benteyga owners got; namely how the Bentayga uses the same Volkswagen Group platform as the Audi Q7, Porsche Cayenne and Lamborghini Urus. Rolls-Royce will unveil the SUV publicly in late summer, while sales will commence towards the end of the year. As for first deliveries, we’ll have to wait for the beginning of 2019. Whether it will be called the Cullinan or not, the Rolls-Royce SUV is expected to utilize the same twin turbo V12 power unit found in the latest-generation Phantom. That would give it 571 hp and 900 Nm. +++
+++ After more than 3,000 TOYOTA Mirai models were sold in California alone, the nameplate now accounts for more than 80% of all hydrogen fuel cell vehicles sold in the United States. Unlike cars that employ traditional internal combustion engines or even petrol-electric hybrid tech, the Mirai creates electricity by using hydrogen, oxygen and a fuel cell, a process that emits nothing but water vapor into the atmosphere. “Toyota remains at the forefront of developing and deploying hydrogen fuel cell technology, and we believe strongly in its potential to help realize a more sustainable and zero-emissions society”, said Toyota exec VP, Bob Carter. “From our success in launching the Mirai to our work in building the world’s first megawatt-scale carbonate fuel cell power generation plant, Toyota is proud to bring to market new uses for this versatile technology”. The Mirai features an EPA estimated driving range of 502 km. According to Toyota, it takes just 5 minutes to refuel it. Also, the Japanese automaker is committed to building a hydrogen-friendly society. Currently, 31 retail hydrogen stations are open in California, with an additional 12 stations projected to arrive this year in the Golden State. Meanwhile, Toyota is also building a new Tri-Gen facility at the Port of Long Beach that will use bio-waste gathered from the state’s agricultural industry in order to generate water, electricity and hydrogen; the latter will fuel all Toyota FCEVs moving through the port. This will include both the Mirai sedan as well as the automaker’s Heavy Duty hydrogen fuel cell class 8 truck, also known as Project Portal. +++