+++ DODGE recently warned that emissions regulations are killing the V8 engine. It reaffirmed this grim message, it clearly stated the V8 is on its way out, but it stressed electrification will make its breed of muscle cars more exciting. “There hasn’t been a date drawn in the sand saying you’ll no longer be able to buy an iron block Hemi anymore, but everybody knows it’s coming and they want to enjoy the engine while they can”, stated Matt McAlear, Dodge’s head of sales operations, in an interview. Not all is lost. “The replacements are going to be so much more exciting”, he added, without providing details about what his team has in store for the future. Rumors about how the Charger and the Challenger (introduced in 2008) will evolve during the 2020s are rampant. One of the unverified reports claims the next-generation Challenger will be smaller and correspondingly lighter than its predecessor. In 2019, then-Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) boss Mike Manley announced some degree of electrification is inevitable. Tellingly, he also stated “what it isn’t going to be is a V8, supercharged, 700-horsepower engine” when asked about what would power the Challenger’s successor. Nothing suggests the recent merger with PSA to form Stellantis derailed those plans; if anything, it accelerates the FCA side’s drive to electrify. In the meantime, Dodge will do what it can to satisfy the enthusiast community’s appetite for V8 engines. “Everybody knows electrification is coming, we’ll reinvent the muscle car as far as Dodge is concerned. I’m extremely excited about where the future is going, but right now everybody is enjoying the bachelor party. This is the last hurrah”, McAlear summed up. In other words: If you want a new Hemi-powered car, buy one while you still can. Luckily, Dodge isn’t quite ready to stuff the V8 into the darkest locker of automotive history. Documents published in late 2020 by Canadian trade union Unifor confirm the Challenger will remain in production until at least 2023. The Brampton Assembly factory located on the outskirts of Toronto that builds the Challenger and the Charger will benefit from a $1.31 billion investment that will partly be used to build three new variants of both cars. Dodge’s definition of a new variant isn’t clear, and it could range from an option package to a facelift. +++
+++ Many Americans seem keenly interested in ELECTRIC CARS . They’re always asking about them: “Have you driven that new Tesla yet?”, they’ll say, or ask how a Mustang Mach-E or Porsche Taycan compares. Recently, the questions go like this: “So I read that General Motors is going to stop making gasoline cars”. I’ve been asked the same about Volvo, Ford and Cadillac. Seemingly every week now, another automaker shoots up a hand to pledge good green intentions and hatred of climate change, like front-row students seeking a teacher’s praise; or in this high-tuition racket, a gold star from media and Wall Street. My neighbors reliably wrap their inquiry with an expectant look: This is my cue to say how wonderful it all is, and won’t it be great when everyone drives an electric vehicle. Here’s where things get tricky. I do believe that would be a wonderful thing, for so many reasons: Climate change, choking smog, consumers’ physical and financial health, ultimately the competitiveness of the American industry and the nation itself. But I’m not gonna lie to these people: The promises automakers (and analysts) are floating for an all-electric future are wildly premature. That’s despite a potential sea change in political support for electric vehicles. President Joe Biden’s own goal calls for $174 billion in public spending to support electric vehicle adoption, with everything from consumer rebates to 500.000 new public chargers. That would represent a great beginning, but it hasn’t even begun. For now, the goalposts for these supposed conversions include 2025 for an all-electric Jaguar, and 2030 for Cadillac and Volvo. 2030 is when the U.K. insists it will ban sales of new gasoline and diesel cars. The EU is under pressure to set its own phase-out date. You think the soccer Super League got royal subjects up in arms? Wait ‘til 2029 rolls around, and these blokes hear they can only buy an electric vehicle from now on. The promises become grander, and hazier, after that: 2035, no more gasoline or diesel passenger models in GM showrooms (with a dispensation for heavy-duty pick-ups). For GM, full carbon neutrality by 2040. Volkswagen, carbon-zero in both production and vehicle emissions by 2050. Now, I’m not saying automakers are fibbing, exactly. VW may have fumbled with its bogus “Voltswagen” naming stunt, but it isn’t investing $80 billion in electric vehicles for an image boost. Ditto for GM’s own $27 billion bet on electric vehicles and autonomous cars through 2025, including battery gigafactories in Ohio and Tennessee. But goalposts have a way of moving. Cans get kicked down the road, especially when they bang into a wall of stubborn consumers or economic realities. By this point, it’s almost not worth ticking off the reasons for glacial electric vehicle adoption: Models that remain prohibitively expensive for many mainstream buyers, despite encouraging progress in reducing battery costs. Limited driving range and attendant anxiety. Public charging that’s rarely where you want it, or as fast as you need it. And the elephant in the studio apartment, a near-blackout of charging options for big-city dwellers and apartment renters everywhere. Those include educated, high-income professionals who would love to own an EV, but feel cut out of the game. Solving the charging conundrum alone will require a Marshall Plan-level of spending and political will: Globally, AlixPartners figures a $300 billion investment to support electric vehicles at projected 2030 levels, $50 billion of that in America. In the meantime, too many analysts and cheerleaders keep making faulty assumptions on EV adoption. They ignore the elephants, the systemic forces (including gasoline, the cheap, government-subsidized drug available on every street corner) and figure it’s just a matter of automakers pushing more models at consumers. They tote up, say, the roughly 100 new electric vehicles expected in showrooms by 2025, and assure us that this time, the tipping point will arrive. But the sales and projections never add up. The original Nissan Leaf still holds America’s annual sales record for any non-Tesla electric vehicle, with 30,200 sales in 2014. One might fairly assume, if Americans were so fired up over electric vehicles, that one legacy automaker would have scored a genuine sales hit by now, with something, anything better than a 2014 Nissan Leaf. The fact they haven’t should tell you something about electric vehicles current market competitiveness (again, Tesla being the outlier). Argue all you like that electric vehicles can cost less in the long run, once energy and maintenance costs are factored in. If people are happy with the gasoline cars they own now, and choose to not look beyond a monthly payment, pleas to rational consumer behavior may fall flat. Given a full year of sales, the impressive Ford Mustang Mach-E should break the Leaf’s record, if Ford can pry enough units away from Europe, where regulatory demands are more urgent. But even, say, 40.000 units is a pittance versus the 400.000 annual sales of a Toyota RAV4 (as I’ve said, wake me when the first non-Tesla EV breaks the 100.000 sales mark). Perhaps next year’s electric Ford F-150 pickup will be the one to win over the masses. With Ford moving roughly 800.000 F-150’s in a good year, converting just one in 10 buyers would mean 80,000 electric pickup sales. Another good start, in America’s perennially best-selling vehicle, potentially proving electricity’s merits at a grass-roots, topsoil-hauling level. Either way, the ongoing PR spin from legacy automakers could power a planet of electric vehicles. In some ways it’s hard to blame them. An industry that was seen as a low-margin dead end suddenly has a bright future, including autonomous and ride-sharing cars. So every automaker is adopting the playbook of Tesla and start-ups: “Story stock” promises, fairy tales or not, can work wonders to attract investment and goose company valuations. GM’s mere announcement that it would snuff out gasoline cars 14 years from now lifted its stock up by 4 %. More-concrete news of an electric Silverado pickup brought a record high for the post-bankruptcy “New GM” at over $63 a share, and a market cap of $89 billion. Peanuts compared to Tesla’s $685 billion valuation, but headed in the right direction. If consumers don’t see the upside to joining the electric vehicle brigade, and governments don’t throw considerable weight behind their own lofty promises, then all the showrooms full of shiny EV’s won’t mean squat. Beyond the worst examples of greenwashing (including opportunistic start-ups like Nikola and Lordstown Motors that seem more like vaporware with each day) most major automakers seem sincere and serious about transitioning their businesses. Eventually. Tesla’s existential threat, China’s bid to dominate the electric vehicle and battery industries, and looming regulations from San Francisco to Shanghai, have GM and other automakers wide awake, even if they’re not as woke on the environment as they’d like us to believe. Unlike an all-electric Tesla, legacy automakers must still design and sell the internal combustion engine cars that generate the vast majority of sales, and all the profits, while developing electric vehicles that may one day put their old business out-of-business. That’s one tricky business, as Steve Carlisle, GM’s North American chief suggested. That all electric vehicle promise? More like a goal. “We’re all in, but we need other people to join us”, Carlisle said. “We’re going to do everything we can possibly do to make that future come true. There’s a bit of leading the horse to water. We’ve got to provide the consumers what they want, when they want it, and at the same time, give a different, compelling view of the future”. You don’t need to read between the lines to hear him hedging GM’s electric vehicle bet. But Carlisle is right: If consumers don’t see the upside to joining the electric vehicle brigade, and governments don’t throw considerable weight behind their own lofty promises, then all the showrooms full of shiny electric vehicle’s won’t mean squat. +++
+++ FORD spent this morning talking a lot about its electrified future, ultimately claiming that 40 % of its vehicles sold would be all-electric by 2030. That means that Ford needs to come out with lots of new electric vehicles before then, and it’s looking like the Bronco and Explorer could be 2 that make the list. Ford’s North American product communications manager Mike Levine hopped on Twitter to spread the word of both. Levine tweeted a photo collage from Ford’s presentation that includes an image depicting the outline of a Bronco 4-door riding on an electric vehicle platform. The boxy shape is rather obvious, but the rear-mounted tire makes it even more so. Levine even made reference to “rugged SUVs” in his tweet. That’s about as close as you can get to confirmation of an electric Bronco without Ford explicitly saying the words. Besides the Bronco outline, Ford also included outlines for a pickup and van. Ford already announced the F-150 Lightning and E-Transit, but you can expect even more EVs coming our way in that space. Levine replied to his own tweet saying that there’s “an all-new full-size pickup electric vehicle architecture in development”. That sounds like a next-gen F-150 Lightning is already in the works, which comes as no real surprise. In addition to the electric Bronco news, Levine spilled the beans on a future electric Explorer. He tweeted, “yes, we will fully electrify Explorer as you might expect, given our plan to deliver 40 % of our lineup as fully electric vehicles by 2030”. Ford sells around 200.000 Explorers every year these days, so offering an electric version would be a big boost to overall EV volume. Plus, the 3-row crossover market is hot right now, and nobody else is selling an equivalent model. Levine finishes by teasing future electrified “icons” one day, but doesn’t specify which models or provide timing. Currently, Ford considers the following models to be part of its “icon” lineup: Bronco, Bronco Sport, Mustang, Mustang Mach-E and the Ford GT. We can likely rule out the GT for the time being, but a fully-electric Mustang sports coupe (probably in addition to a gasoline-powered version) and Bronco Sport could both come in the decade. +++
+++ There are up to 44,500 reservations for the FORD F-150 LIGHTNING . That’s over double the number that Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley originally said Ford received within the first 12 hours post-reveal. Ford opened up reservations for the F-150 Lightning last night as it revealed the car, and it looks like a lot of people were paying attention. To place a reservation, potential buyers had to navigate to Ford’s reservation site and put down a $100 refundable deposit. That secured a place in line, but reservation holders will have to convert their reservations to orders later this year. For comparison, Tesla claimed it received about 250.000 reservations for the Cybertruck within 5 days of revealing it: the reservation price was $100, just like the F-150 Lightning’s. It’s also worth noting that it’s been nearly a year and a half since the Cybertruck was revealed, and the truck still appears far from production. Ford plans to ship the F-150 Lightning to customers in spring 2022. Farley also mentioned that Ford would limit the total production number in the first model year, but he didn’t give a number. The Mustang Mach-E received the same treatment for this 2021 model year, and it was limited to 50.000 cars. The F-150’s popularity will likely result in a higher limit than the Mach-E’s, but Ford hasn’t divulged that information just yet. If you’re interested in joining the parade of people who have put down reservations, Ford’s estimated pricing ranges from about $40.000 – $90.000. The entry-level base truck is of the work truck variety, and the first consumer-oriented truck is the XLT trim that starts at $52.974. +++
+++ The new GENESIS G80 and GV80 have gained a 5-star safety verdict in Euro NCAP’s latest round of testing, while the Citroën C4 earned 4 stars. The recent tests focused on “crashworthiness and crash avoidance evaluation”. The new BMW 4 Series Coupé and 4 Series Convertible matched the 5-star level achieved by the 3 Series upon which they’re based. Both Genesis models were credited for the effectiveness of their head, chest and centre airbags. The G80 saloon scored a 91 % adult occupant score and 87 % child occupant score, as well as a 91 % safety assist rating. The larger GV80 also earned 91 % and 87 % adult occupant and child occupant scores respectively and 88 % for safety assist. “These remain difficult times for the car industry, with the pandemic and semiconductor shortage presenting big challenges”, said Michiel van Ratingen, secretary general of Euro NCAP. “Still, Genesis has managed to bring 2 cars to the market which offer excellent, all-round robust safety performance”. The third-generation C4 earned a 4-star overall rating, with a 76 % adult occupant score, 83 % child occupant score, 57 % for vulnerable road user protection and 63 % for safety assist. Euro NCAP suggested that it could have scored higher with “some more careful engineering”. The C4 was tested with standard equipment, including automatic emergency braking that reacts to both vehicles and pedestrians. A cyclist detection function is available as an optional add-on. Meanwhile, several models have had their Euro NCAP ratings extended to cover hybrid variants, including the Renault Captur, Skoda Octavia, Opel Grandland X and Volkswagen Golf. Also, the BMW X3 and Opel Corsa have had their ratings extended to their electric variants. +++
+++ China’s electric vehicle maker LI AUTO expects sales to reach 10.000 cars a month from September and will expand its sales network, executives said. Li Auto president Shen Yanan said Li Auto, which has only one model, expects monthly sales of its facelifted Li One extended-range electric SUV model to nearly double by September. It sold 5.539 cars in April. Shen said the firm would expand its sales network and continue to use a direct-sales model strategy to sell its vehicles, adding that it is building a team to research selling overseas. It has 75 stores in more than 50 Chinese cities. Li Auto, with a market capitalization of $18 billion, is competing with Tesla and a swathe of Chinese electric vehicle makers, including Nio and Xpeng. CEO Li Xiang said Li Auto plans to invest 3 billion yuan in research and development this year, and expects that number to grow. Li said he open to further fundraising options, including bonds, loans and follow-ons. +++
+++ NISSAN is reported to be progressing with plans to build a battery factory in the United Kingdom in 2024 to support its transition to an electric vehicle-only line-up. Citing 3 people close to the project, British media report that the Japanese manufacturer is in “advanced talks” with the UK government and is expected to make an official announcement on the discussions’ outcome in the coming months. Nissan is expanding its operations in the Tyne and Wear region in line with a view to making the UK its biggest production hub outside of Japan. It recently outlined plans to expand its Sunderland battery production facility, run by engineering partner Envision, to supply larger power packs for the UK-built Leaf, in line with post-Brexit foreign trade rules. The new factory is reported too far exceed the 1.9 GWh capacity of that existing facility (although it will be smaller than Tesla’s 35 GWh Nevada site), with production initially running at 6 GWh and eventually topping out at between 18 GWh and 20 GWh. The site will again be run by Envision and it will have a production capacity of 200.000 units annually, creating “thousands of jobs”. The sources claim that Nissan wants “tens of millions of pounds” worth of support from the British government and to secure lower energy costs for the plant’s operation. Nissan’s battery factory would be the UK’s second such facility, following the opening of Britishvolt’s £2.6 billion site in nearby Blyth in 2023. Designed by Pininfarina, that facility is expected to have a capacity of 300.000 batteries per year by 2027 and create around 8.000 jobs on-site and in the supply chain. While talks with Nissan are ongoing, the UK government is reported to also be talking to “several other potential gigafactory investors”. It’s widely believed that the UK automotive industry will become uncompetitive globally without its own battery-production facilities. Rumours persist that Tesla could be considering its own battery factory in the UK, although this possibility was weakened in 2019 when the firm opted to open a site near Berlin in Germany (which has lately been beset by permit delays and local opposition). A recent visit to the UK by Tesla boss Elon Musk reignited suggestions that a Tesla production outpost here is back on the cards, although he has yet to publicly comment on the speculation. +++
+++ BMW and Volkswagen are set to face REDUCED EU ANTITRUST FINES over clean air technology after regulators narrowed the scope of an investigation, a person familiar with the matter said. The case is different from Volkswagen’s diesel emissions cheating scandal, which has cost it more than €31 billion in fines and settlements. The European Commission, which charged the German carmakers in 2019 with colluding to block the rollout of clean emissions technology, is likely to issue fines before the summer break, the person told. The EU competition watchdog had said previously that the case involved the “circle of 5”, namely BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen Group’s VW, Audi and Porsche. The EU case will only focus on selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems, which reduce nitrogen oxides from diesel car emissions through the injection of urea (also called AdBlue) in the exhaust gas stream, the person said. The Commission said in its 2019 charge sheet that the German carmakers colluded to restrict the size of AdBlue tanks between 2006 and 2014. EU regulators scrapped earlier allegations that the group delayed new cleaner particulate filters for petrol cars from 2009 to 2014. The Commission said the investigation was ongoing and declined further comment. BMW and Volkswagen declined to comment. Last week BMW cut its antitrust provisions by €1 billion after it estimated a lower EU fine. Daimler, which alerted the wrongdoing to the Commission, reiterated that it will not face a fine and declined further comment. +++
+++ ROLLS-ROYCE is returning to their roots as the company is embracing coachbuilding once again. According to the automaker, the creation of the one-off Sweptail was the “start of a journey” which ultimately led to their Coachbuild department being “formally reestablished”. The company will share additional details in the future, but they noted their Coachbuild division will allow customers to “go beyond the existing restraints” and explore “almost limitless possibilities”. In essence, everything about coachbuilt models will be unique except for the powertrain and architecture. While Rolls-Royce didn’t go into many specifics, they noted their Architecture of Luxury was “designed and engineered from the ground up to be scalable for a range of different models”. It has 4 fixed points, but the distance between them can be whatever designers and engineers want them to be. Furthermore, the bulkhead, floor, crossmember and sill panels can be stretched or shrunk. The company says the architecture allows them to create almost any body shape customers can imagine, and the only constraints are “fundamental design and engineering requirements”. Rolls-Royce added the platform echoes many of the traits of rolling chassis, which were used in coachbuilding at the turn of the century. As Rolls-Royce explained, in the early days of motoring, automakers typically made a rolling chassis and then sent it to coachbuilders for bodywork. By the early 1920’s, companies were starting to bring coachbuilding in-house but many luxury marquees still enabled customers to order a rolling chassis for completion by coachbuilders. This spawned some iconic vehicles, but the automotive industry was changing and the shift to semi-monocoque construction made “all but the simplest of adaptations to the body design itself impossible”. At Rolls-Royce, this occurred in 1965 when the Silver Shadow replaced the Silver Cloud. However, this didn’t mark the end of coachbuilt Rolls-Royces as the Phantom VI remained in production until 1993 and could be outfitted with unique bodywork from subsidiary H. J. Mulliner, Park Ward Ltd. While customers were free to let their imaginations run wild, Rolls-Royce did impose limitations. In particular, the company insisted on “fixed dimensions for the bulkhead behind the radiator” and this ensured bodywork “maintained the essential proportions that visually identified it as a ‘true’ Rolls‑Royce”. The future of coachbuilt Rolls-Royces remains to be seen, but the company said the capability builds on their highly successful bespoke program. As they noted, every single car built in the first quarter of this year included bespoke elements and that was a first for the company as well as something that makes “Rolls-Royce a true luxury house, not merely an automotive manufacturer”. The company also highlighted past coachbuilt models including ones with flower vases, exterior tables, and a then state-of-the-art sound and television system. +++
+++ A joint study from the American Automobile Association (AAA) and Harvard has revealed how uncomfortable many drivers are about sharing the roads SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES . The study, conducted with the Technology and Public Purpose Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, revealed that 53 % of drivers surveyed felt less safe sharing the road with self-driving semi-trucks while 47 % felt less safe sharing roads with other self-driving vehicles. In the study, the AAA noted that 38 states and the District of Columbia have active self-driving test pilot projects in operation. While many of these programs, particularly those in California and Nevada, are well-publicized, many others aren’t. In fact, just 35 % of those that responded to the survey knew that some states allowed self-driving test vehicles on public roads. Additionally, 34 % of those surveyed said they are in favor of self-driving pilot programs while 36 % said they oppose them. The remaining 31 % said they were unsure about such programs. Of those that opposed the programs, 77 % said they had concerns over the safety of sharing the road with self-driving vehicles while 62 % had concerns over who would be responsible for crashes with self-driving vehicles. More than half also believe that the public needs to know the best way to behave around autonomous test vehicles. The study also revealed that some of the anxieties of drivers could be overcome if autonomous test vehicles were easier to identify. In fact, 62 % said they would feel safer if such vehicles were clearly marked. Meanwhile, 60 % said they want dedicated lanes for self-driving vehicles. In the study, the AAA said regulators should establish guidelines that make such vehicles more identifiable. +++
+++ TESLA will drop a radar sensor in favor of a camera-focused Autopilot system for its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in North America starting this month. The move came amid growing scrutiny by regulators and media about the safety of what Tesla dubs “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving (FSD)” features, following a series of crashes. “Pure vision Autopilot is now rolling out in North America”, CEO Elon Musk said in a Tweet. He said it plans to release an improved “FSD beta V9.0” based on the pure vision system about 3 weeks later. “FSD subscription will be enabled around the same time”, he said. In October, Tesla rolled out the test version of its new FSD system to a limited number of people, enabling cars to navigate on city streets in semi-autonomous mode as well as highways. A wider launch has been delayed. While most companies like Waymo equip autonomous cars with cameras paired with sensors like lidars and radars, Tesla relied on cameras and one radar to detect and analyze objects. Tesla’s approach helped reduce costs and commercialize its driver assistant features, but experts and other companies have raised safety concerns. Tesla said the transition to a camera-focused system may result in limitations of some features such as lane-centering and parking assistance, saying those functions will be restored via software updates “in the weeks ahead”. All new Model S and Model X cars, as well as all vehicles built for markets outside North America, will still be equipped with a radar, Tesla said. A radar sensor uses radio waves and sensors to detect objects. In March, Tesla told California regulators it might not achieve full self-driving technology by the end of 2021. +++